LONDON, July 4, 2026, 15:02 BST
- National Grid plc (LON:NG.) closed at 1,244p on Friday, gaining 1.14% for the session. Shares were still down 0.12% over the last five trading days.
- Joulent’s $1.75 billion stake comes in at about 1.9% of National Grid’s $90 billion-plus five-year capex plan. That makes it small by that measure, but still roughly 12 times what National Grid Ventures spent on capex last year, going by the company FX figures.
- Ofgem’s ED3 rulebook leaves the 2028-2033 distribution spending up in the air this week. DNO business plans are due in December. Final decisions are expected by the end of 2027.
London markets were closed Saturday, capping a week where National Grid plc (LON:NG.) ended little changed. The London Stock Exchange runs from 0800 to 1630 local time, Monday through Friday, so the next move for the stock will come Monday when trading returns.
National Grid finished Friday at 1,244p, up 1.14%. That topped the FTSE 100, which added 0.25%. Still, shares are down 12.9% from their March 2 peak of 1,428.5p. The market isn’t fully pricing National Grid’s AI push yet.
National Grid shares dropped 2.96% on July 1 after the company said it struck the Joulent deal. The stock recovered most losses in the next two sessions, but trading volume on Friday came in at 6.04 million shares, much lighter than the 20.77 million on Monday’s slide.
| Session | Close | Day move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun. 26 | 1,245.5p | fell 0.60% | 12.66 mln |
| Jun. 29 | 1,254.5p | up 0.72% | 10.55 mln |
| Jun. 30 | 1,248.0p | down 0.52% | 9.94 mln |
| Jul. 1 | 1,211.0p | dropped 2.96% | 20.77 mln |
| Jul. 2 | 1,230.0p | added 1.57% | 17.21 mln |
| Jul. 3 | 1,244.0p | rose 1.14% | 6.04 mln |
Volume tells the story. Most of the trades hit as the stock sank, not during the snapback. Investors in regulated utilities watch that. The warning: doubts remain whether new commercial power deals can top regulated returns without bringing in extra execution risk.
National Grid Ventures said it will put $1.75 billion into Joulent LLC for a 35% stake. Joulent’s first job is Kilby, a 2.67 GW gas power plant in West Texas that’s being built with Chevron Corp NYSE:CVX on a 50/50 basis. The plant is planned to supply a Microsoft Corp NASDAQ:MSFT data center campus through a 20-year PPA. Turbines come from GE Vernova Inc NYSE:GEV, with construction slots already reserved. First power is expected in 2028.
National Grid’s 35% position in Joulent, combined with Joulent’s 50% in Kilby, gives it an indirect 17.5% interest in Kilby. That equates to about 467 MW. Just looking at Kilby, the $1.75 billion paid translates to roughly $3.75 million per attributable MW. This isn’t a pure project spend, because the deal also covers ownership in a platform and pipeline, but it does put a number on the risk investors are weighing.
| Measure | Figure | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Joulent investment | $1.75 bln | Works out to 1.9% of the $90 bln five-year capex plan |
| Joulent stake | 35% | Not a controlling position, just a minority |
| Kilby gross capacity | 2.67 GW | Big enough to supply major data centre power |
| Indirect Kilby interest | 17.5% | That’s 35% of Joulent, with Joulent holding half the project |
| Look-through capacity | About 467 MW | Quick way to size up the project exposure at launch |
| FY25/26 NGV capex | £109 mln | This cheque for Joulent dwarfs last year’s Ventures spend |
National Grid CEO Zoë Yujnovich called Joulent a “disciplined, partner-led investment.” Joulent’s Chris James said the funding will let them push “large-scale power” on AI schedules. Microsoft cloud chief Noelle Walsh said meeting AI and cloud needs means energy and infrastructure have to work closer together. PR Newswire
J.P. Morgan analysts said they see returns from the Ventures investment topping the 9%-10% return on equity they forecast for regulated networks, due to the deal’s higher risk profile. The bull case is that while the stake is small for the group, it’s capital that could deliver higher returns.
The big risk is still the balance sheet. National Grid’s net debt stood at £44.2 billion as of March 31. FFO to net debt slipped again, hitting 13.0% from 13.7% previously. Capital investment is set to hit a record £11.6 billion for 2025/26. The company said that roughly two-thirds of its minimum £70 billion five-year plan is already supported by regulatory deals.
Ofgem’s ED3 framework is the other main issue in play now. The regulator told Britain’s distribution network operators like National Grid Electricity Distribution to hand in business plans for 2028-2033 by December. Draft rulings are coming next summer, with final calls set for end-2027 ahead of the new price control starting April 1, 2028. Ofgem’s Steve McMahon said the rules are a “tough but fair balance,” and warned the “build and flex” approach will limit new build unless demand really warrants it. Ofgem
National Grid’s annual meeting comes up July 14, the next set date for corporate events on the calendar. Shares traded between a 1,211p low on July 1 and Monday’s 1,254.5p close, with Friday finishing in the middle.
