LONDON, March 9, 2026, 17:34 GMT
Europe’s flagship natural gas contract surged close to 30% in early trading Monday, briefly spiking just below 70 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) before retreating. Traders moved to price in expectations of a longer outage in Qatar, alongside drawn-out shipping snarls in the Strait of Hormuz. By mid-morning, the Dutch TTF April contract—the region’s key wholesale benchmark—had slipped back toward 60 euros/MWh. 1
Why does it matter? Europe faces its storage refill season with inventories running light, plus a legal mandate to get sites up to 90% by November. Right now, EU storage sits at roughly 30%—about 9 points under last year’s mark. Brussels, for its part, has flagged high prices as a drag on injections, though officials don’t see an immediate supply crisis. 2
Europe’s energy nerves surfaced again as gas surged, pushing Brent crude up to $119.50 a barrel on Monday. Investors dumped European stocks, pricing in the sting of rising inflation and slowing growth. 3
It’s not just Europe feeling the squeeze. Over 80% of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG)—that’s gas turned to liquid for easier shipping—typically goes to Asia, and now buyers there are back out searching for available spot cargoes. India’s GAIL put out a tender for a shipment in March; Gujarat State Petroleum Corp picked up April supply, paying north of $20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). 4
The main blow came from Qatar’s outage. People with knowledge told Reuters last week the Ras Laffan system—key to the country’s 77 million-tonne annual LNG operation—would be down for at least a month before production gets back to normal. And Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that restoring regular deliveries could drag on for “weeks to months,” even with an immediate end to the fighting. 5
Europe’s in a tough spot here. Erisa Pasko at Energy Aspects flagged that if shipping grinds to a halt for a month, European inventories might finish winter scraping historic lows. SEB’s Ole Hvalbye put the hit to the global LNG market near 7 million tonnes if the disruption drags on for a month—and warned European gas prices could stick above 60 euros per MWh, possibly spiking to 100 if Ras Laffan doesn’t come back quickly. 6
That’s given other suppliers a shot. According to LSEG data, U.S. exporters are looking at estimated 2026 gas costs of about $3.63 per mmBtu, with forwards at $12.41 in Europe and $12.95 in Asia, putting the U.S. in the lead for spot cargo flexibility. Australia, Russia, Malaysia and Nigeria might also target higher returns, but Australia’s options are limited since most of its output is already tied up. 7
Flows have started to move. Three LNG tankers recently shifted course toward Asia, according to ship-tracking from Kpler and LSEG. Kesher Sumeet at Energy Aspects pointed out that “flexible U.S. cargoes will likely start to come to Asia” if present spreads persist. Klaas Dozeman, Brainchild Commodity Intelligence, noted that QatarEnergy leasing out tankers beyond Hormuz makes a “quick and full restart” appear less likely. 8
Even so, some of the rally could unwind if the disruption ends up being shorter than traders expect. On March 2, the European Commission pointed to healthy storage levels, saying they’re enough to refill before next winter. There’s also at least 35 million tonnes of new LNG capacity coming online this year. Prices, despite Monday’s surge, are still far from the highs seen during Europe’s energy crisis in 2022. 9
