New York, March 3, 2026, 13:10 EST — Regular session
- U.S. natural gas futures for April jumped roughly 5.6% in afternoon trading, reaching $3.125 per mmBtu.
- Disrupted LNG supply and mounting shipping risks from the escalating Iran conflict had traders on edge.
- Traders shift attention to Thursday’s U.S. storage numbers, with fresh temperature forecasts also on their radar.
U.S. natural gas futures moved higher Tuesday, the April NYMEX contract gaining 16.5 cents, or 5.6%, to trade at $3.125 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 1:04 p.m. EST. Prices swung between $2.973 and $3.187 earlier in the session. 1
Traders tacked on a new risk premium to energy prices after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran rattled oil and gas output and squeezed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—vital for global fuel exports. According to Reuters, Iran claims the strait is now shut, and top insurers have dropped war-risk coverage for vessels operating in the zone. 2
Qatar, a heavyweight in global LNG, stopped all liquefied natural gas and related output on Monday after strikes hit Ras Laffan facilities. The country supplies about 20% of the world’s LNG exports, according to analysts. Every Qatari LNG cargo passes through the Strait of Hormuz. 3
Overseas gas markets took the first hit. Dutch front-month TTF futures, the benchmark for Europe, soared nearly 50% Monday according to ICE figures. Asian spot LNG followed higher. “Disruptions to LNG flows would reignite competition between Asia and Europe for available cargoes,” said Massimo Di Odoardo at Wood Mackenzie. ING’s Warren Patterson flagged a potential TTF surge to “80-100 euros/MWh” if traders start factoring in a prolonged Qatari shutdown. 4
Monday’s rally in the U.S. paved the way. The front-month contract kicked off at $3.026, dipped to $2.941 late in the morning, then closed at $2.960 as traders weighed fresh Middle East news, according to a Tuesday note from Sprague Energy. 5
But domestic trends haven’t flipped. BloombergNEF put Lower 48 dry gas output at 110.2 billion cubic feet per day as of Monday—well ahead of the 93.1 bcfd in demand. LNG exports are taking in 19.5 bcfd, so supply remains robust, even if export appetite rises on firm global pricing. Commodity Weather Group, for its part, expects warmer-than-normal U.S. temperatures from March 7-11, a stretch that could dent heating needs. 6
Still, geopolitics is fueling this rally just as much as weather right now. A quick restart in Qatar or cleared shipping lanes could pull the premium out of gas almost overnight. Throw in milder forecasts heading toward mid-March, and with spring “shoulder season” demand approaching, the downside risk only grows.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration drops its weekly natural gas storage report Thursday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, giving traders their next checkpoint. The agency’s schedule pegs the upcoming release for March 5. 7
