Bengaluru, March 3, 2026, 23:03 IST — Market finished for the day.
- Stock trading in India took a break Tuesday for the Holi holiday, with markets set to reopen Wednesday.
- Nifty 50 and Sensex slipped at the previous close, pressured by crude’s surge as the Middle East conflict escalated.
- Oil, the rupee, and local data loom large for traders once markets reopen.
India’s stock market took a break Tuesday for Holi, leaving both the NSE and BSE shuttered until Wednesday. Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking, flagged the Nifty hovering close to its “support” zone at roughly 24,600—a spot where buyers usually show up. If that level gives way, he said, the pullback could get steeper. 1
Ahead of the pause, markets reeled from Monday’s selloff as the Middle East conflict stoked crude prices and sent investors seeking safety. Nifty 50 ended down 1.24% at 24,865.70; Sensex shed 1.29% to close at 80,238.85. ONGC and Oil India managed gains near 0.9%. Reliance Industries tumbled 2.6%. Larsen & Toubro plunged 5%. Bernstein analysts warned that a drawn-out conflict might drag the Nifty below 24,500. 2
The rupee slid 0.5% on Monday, dropping to 91.47 per dollar—marking its lowest level in a month. Traders pointed to likely Reserve Bank of India intervention to slow the decline. One-year forward premiums, which track the cost of hedging against currency swings, shot up by as much as 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point. Jane Foley at Rabobank noted there was “no sign of an obvious off-ramp” for the war. 3
Bond traders are set for another round of volatility as domestic markets prepare to reopen. According to Reuters, dealers see the benchmark 10-year yield ranging between 6.65% and 6.75% this week. Elevated oil prices—if tensions drag on—will drive input costs higher and risk undermining macro stability, Emkay Global’s Madhavi Arora cautioned. The next domestic data point: February services PMI, scheduled for Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. 4
Overseas markets failed to provide any cushion. Global equity benchmarks slid on Tuesday, while the dollar advanced as traders braced for higher inflation stemming from the energy spike. Brent crude surged over 7%, trading near $83 per barrel. 5
Energy supply concerns ratcheted up. Indian firms slashed natural gas deliveries to industrial users by anywhere from 10% to 30% after LNG flows from Qatar stopped, according to sources in the know. Companies are now looking to issue spot tenders, despite higher spot prices and rising freight and insurance bills. 6
New Delhi moved to cool nerves over supply jitters. After a sit-down with company executives to assess crude oil, LPG, and refined product flows, the federal oil ministry said it’s ready to do whatever’s needed to keep key petroleum products available at affordable prices. 7
Emkay has crunched the numbers: for every $10 bump in crude prices, India’s current account deficit-to-GDP ratio could swell by 0.5 percentage point. Retail inflation, they estimate, would climb about 0.35 percentage point, while GDP growth might slip by something in the 0.15 to 0.20 percentage point range. Barclays, for its part, has warned of a $100-a-barrel scenario if supply snarls drag on, according to Reuters’ India File. 8
The picture could change fast. If tensions ease, or if shipments move more smoothly through vital routes, oil and the rupee might catch a break—potentially reviving expectations for rate cuts. Drawn-out trouble, though, tends to bite hardest in sectors most exposed to fuel costs.
Trading picks up again Wednesday. Crude prices, the rupee, and opening action in energy and bank stocks are likely to draw close attention. Before much else, the services PMI drops in the morning—first real check on sentiment for domestic markets.
