New York, Feb 12, 2026, 12:09 EST — Regular session.
- NYMEX March natural gas rose about 3% after the latest U.S. storage report.
- EIA reported a 249 billion cubic feet withdrawal, leaving stocks below last year and the five-year average.
- Weather forecasts and the next storage report are the near-term triggers.
U.S. natural gas futures climbed on Thursday after the latest government storage data, with traders still trying to price a winter that has swung from freeze-offs to sudden warm-ups. The NYMEX March contract was up 8.2 cents, or 2.6%, at $3.241 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), a standard measure of gas energy. Barchart data also showed the market had been braced for a roughly 257 billion cubic feet draw and flagged a shift toward warmer forecasts across much of the eastern U.S. into Feb. 20. (Barchart)
Why it matters now is storage. Working gas in U.S. storage stood at 2,214 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Friday, Feb. 6, after a net withdrawal of 249 Bcf on the week, the Energy Information Administration reported. Stocks were 97 Bcf below the same week a year earlier and 130 Bcf under the five-year average, even as inventories remained within the historical range. (Eia)
The market is still digesting a violent reset from late January. In its February outlook, the EIA said Henry Hub spot gas averaged $7.72/mmBtu in January and hit a nominal daily record of $30.72 on Jan. 23 as Winter Storm Fern tightened supply and demand. The agency also noted the new March prompt-month contract logged its biggest one-day drop in 30 years on Feb. 2 when mid-February forecasts turned milder. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
In U.S. listed trading, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) — an exchange-traded fund that tracks gas futures — was at $12.53, up from a prior close of $12.32, according to Investing.com. (Investing)
The EIA has also lifted its near-term price view after the storm-driven dislocations. “Winter Storm Fern caused significant short-term pressure on natural gas markets,” EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said in a statement this week, arguing higher near-term prices could spur more drilling and production later in the year. The agency now forecasts Henry Hub prices will average about $4.30/mmBtu in 2026 and $4.40/mmBtu in 2027, while noting U.S. LNG gross exports are expected to rise and that production disruptions in January were tied to severe weather. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
The backdrop has been fickle. On Monday, U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 8% as milder temperature forecasts for the rest of the month undercut heating demand expectations. “The strong gas price advance through most of last week was obviously reversed by continued above normal temperature forecasts,” Ritterbusch and Associates wrote in a note, while meteorologists pointed to warmer-than-normal conditions through Feb. 23 and a drop in Heating Degree Days — a measure tied to heating demand. (Energynow)
For now, traders are watching three things: whether colder weather reasserts itself in late February, whether production rebounds cleanly after weather-related disruptions, and whether LNG feedgas demand stays firm enough to soak up supply.
But the downside case is straightforward. If the warmer forecasts stick and output normalizes faster than demand, storage draws can shrink quickly. In that scenario, the market’s recent bounce risks fading just as winter demand rolls toward the shoulder season.
Next up is the next EIA weekly storage report, due Thursday, Feb. 19, alongside daily weather model updates over the weekend that can swing near-term demand expectations.
