New York, Feb 12, 2026, 12:09 EST — Session in progress.
- After the latest U.S. storage report, NYMEX March natural gas climbed roughly 3%.
- EIA reported a withdrawal of 249 billion cubic feet, pushing stocks below both last year’s levels and the five-year average.
- Upcoming weather forecasts and the next storage report will be the immediate catalysts.
U.S. natural gas futures pushed higher Thursday after the latest government storage report, as traders wrestled with a winter that’s swung between cold snaps and sudden warm spells. The NYMEX March contract rose 8.2 cents, or 2.6%, hitting $3.241 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the standard energy measure for gas. According to Barchart, the market anticipated about a 257 billion cubic feet draw and noted a trend toward warmer weather forecasts for much of the eastern U.S. through February 20.
Storage is the focus right now. On Friday, Feb. 6, working gas in U.S. storage hit 2,214 billion cubic feet (Bcf), following a net withdrawal of 249 Bcf that week, according to the Energy Information Administration. That figure sits 97 Bcf below the same week last year and 130 Bcf under the five-year average. Still, inventories are holding within the historical range. 1
The market is still reeling from a sharp reset in late January. According to the EIA’s February outlook, Henry Hub spot gas averaged $7.72/mmBtu in January and spiked to a nominal daily record of $30.72 on Jan. 23, driven by Winter Storm Fern tightening supply and demand. The agency also pointed out that the March prompt-month contract saw its largest one-day drop in 30 years on Feb. 2, after forecasts for mid-February turned milder. 2
On U.S. exchanges, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), an ETF tracking gas futures, rose to $12.53 from its previous close of $12.32, per 5 .
The EIA has raised its short-term price forecast following disruptions caused by the recent storm. “Winter Storm Fern created notable pressure on natural gas markets in the near term,” EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said this week, suggesting that higher prices now could encourage increased drilling and production later this year. The agency projects Henry Hub prices to average around $4.30/mmBtu in 2026 and $4.40/mmBtu in 2027. It also highlighted expected rises in U.S. LNG gross exports and linked January’s production hiccups to severe weather. 3
The backdrop has been unpredictable. On Monday, U.S. natural gas futures dropped over 8% after forecasts showed milder temperatures for the rest of the month, cutting into heating demand expectations. Ritterbusch and Associates noted in a report that “the strong gas price advance through most of last week was obviously reversed by continued above normal temperature forecasts.” Meteorologists highlighted warmer-than-usual conditions through Feb. 23 and a decline in Heating Degree Days, which track heating demand. 4
Right now, traders are focused on three factors: if colder weather returns in late February, how quickly production recovers after recent weather disruptions, and whether LNG feedgas demand remains strong enough to absorb the available supply.
The downside is pretty clear. If the warmer weather forecasts hold and production ramps up faster than demand, storage withdrawals could drop fast. That would likely cause the market’s recent rally to fade just as winter demand starts easing into the shoulder season.
The next EIA weekly storage report drops Thursday, Feb. 19. Weekend weather model updates will also shake up short-term demand forecasts.
