NatWest Group Shares Climb as Buyback Revives Capital Return Debate

NatWest Group Shares Climb as Buyback Revives Capital Return Debate

May 9, 2026

LONDON, May 9, 2026, 21:11 BST

  • NatWest said it bought 2.75 million ordinary shares as part of its ongoing buyback programme.
  • Shares finished Friday up 1.5% at 579.80 pence, capping a volatile stretch for UK banks.
  • Investors are eyeing whether healthier lending income will be enough to counterbalance a gloomier UK economic picture.

NatWest Group Plc revealed new share buybacks late Friday, a move that kept the market’s attention on capital returns after Britain’s third-biggest domestic lender ended the week up, brushing off recent UK economic jitters. According to a regulatory filing, the bank snapped up 2,749,797 ordinary shares from UBS AG, London Branch, on May 5, executing trades across the LSE, CHIX and BATE platforms. SEC

Timing’s key here: NatWest posted a jump in first-quarter profit and raised its income forecast, but flagged softer-than-expected economic growth in Britain. Now, investors are weighing if the bank can keep handing back surplus capital as lending picks up and credit risks start to increase. Reuters

NatWest finished Friday’s session at 579.80 pence, up 1.51% from Thursday’s close, London Stock Exchange data showed. Shares started the day at 567.20 pence. Earlier this week, the stock dropped 3.64% Tuesday, then bounced back with a 5.69% gain on Wednesday—investors are still sorting out the rate and credit landscape. London Stock Exchange

NatWest plans to cancel the shares post-settlement, according to its filing. After that, the bank expects to hold 194,178,724 ordinary shares in treasury, with 7,966,052,138 ordinary shares outstanding, not counting those held in treasury. Investegate

NatWest’s first-quarter numbers give shareholders fresh ammo. Attributable profit landed at 1.4 billion pounds, with return on tangible equity coming in at 18.2%. Common Equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 14.3%. That CET1 figure, key for assessing loss-absorbing muscle, held steady. Chief Executive Paul Thwaite described the start of the year as carrying “positive momentum.” NatWest Group

On May 7, Chief Financial Officer Katie Murray told analysts that NatWest had experienced “broad-based growth” in the quarter and bumped up its planned mortgage hedge notional by 5 billion pounds. The hedge notional refers to the chunk of assets a bank protects through an interest-rate hedge—a tool for securing future income from both deposits and lending.

But Murray stopped short of promising faster buybacks. Pressed on whether NatWest might act sooner given the share price drop, she replied the bank remains on track with its June 2027 capital plan for now. Still, she left the door open: “let’s see how the year unfolds.”

Jefferies continues to back UK domestic lenders—NatWest, Barclays, Lloyds—with “buy” ratings, although it shaved its NatWest target down to 730 pence from 750. Analysts remain divided: cleaner capital stands out, but so do macro risks. The broker cites the structural hedge as a key driver for the sector, yet flags that political jitters are keeping new investors at bay. Investing

UBS analyst Jason Napier sounded a notably upbeat note following the results, describing NatWest’s loan growth as “broad-based and attractive,” Proactive Investors reported. Shore Capital, for its part, acknowledged the numbers came in a touch below market expectations, though pointed to strength in the bank’s core business, citing strong cost controls and ongoing capital generation. Proactiveinvestors UK

This week brought another ownership flag. According to a fresh filing, Norges Bank bumped its NatWest voting rights to 3.080010% from 2.886470% after crossing a UK disclosure threshold on May 6. SEC

There’s a risk the environment deteriorates before buybacks bring much relief. NatWest, according to Reuters, has slashed its 2026 UK GDP growth outlook to 0.4% from 1%, and pared back its house-price forecast to just 0.7% from an earlier 3.4%. The bank also booked a £283 million impairment, £140 million of that tied to fallout from the Middle East war. On top of that, Jefferies flagged the likelihood of a higher UK bank surcharge, saying a two-point increase would shave 2% to 3% off sector profits. Reuters

NatWest faces a key hurdle with first-half numbers set for July 31, giving investors a deeper read on credit quality, loan volumes, and how fast it’s stacking up capital. For now, the buyback story is carrying some weight. NatWest Group Investors

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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