LONDON, March 21, 2026, 17:01 GMT
NatWest Group’s London-listed stock closed out Friday at 520 pence, falling 2.62% for the day and finishing the week down 8.1%. The rout in UK bank shares gathered speed, with traders rattled by the Bank of England’s hawkish tone and renewed oil-driven inflation concerns. Over the last five sessions, NatWest lagged the FTSE 350 by 4.7 percentage points.
The timing stands out: just over a month ago, NatWest posted a 24% surge in 2025 pretax profit, hiked its long-term goals, and kicked off a £750 million share buyback. Yet the stock is still trading 25.1% under its 52-week peak at £6.94, and has dropped 20.3% since early 2026.
This week’s action had a mechanical driver: NatWest’s final 2025 dividend, set at 23p, went ex-dividend back on March 19. From that point, new investors lost eligibility for the payout. Shareholders will need to approve the distribution at the bank’s annual meeting on April 28, with payment scheduled for May 5.
Rates set the tone. FTSE 100 dropped 1.4% Friday, with banks leading losses after the BoE kept rates at 3.75% but signaled it was ready to move. Governor Andrew Bailey insisted the priority was getting inflation “back to its 2% target.” Rob Wood from Pantheon Macroeconomics pointed to surging energy prices, saying a rate hike could come if those keep climbing. Reuters
J.P. Morgan is penciling in quarter-point rate hikes from the BoE for both April and July. Over at Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, and Barclays, analysts are warning that another move could land sooner rather than later if energy costs keep climbing. That’s putting pressure on NatWest, with domestic banks coming under fire as a group again. Investors are weighing the risk to growth—despite the fact that Barclays and Lloyds raised their profitability targets earlier this year.
NatWest didn’t shy away from the dip, snapping up 5.74 million of its own shares between March 16 and March 20, according to a Friday filing. The bank is set to cancel those shares as part of its ongoing buyback programme, trimming the count in circulation to 7.98 billion, not counting treasury stock.
Management’s focus keeps circling back to the long-term narrative. Back in February, chief executive Paul Thwaite said the bank was “raising our ambition and sharpening our strategic focus,” aiming for return on tangible equity above 18% by 2028—a key profit metric for banks. That push leans hard into wealth management and other fee-generating business. For RBC Capital Markets analyst Benjamin Toms, the Evelyn Partners acquisition is “transformational,” describing it as “filling the gap” in NatWest’s wealth services for affluent clients. Reuters
Still, the downside risk is straightforward. Back in February, Jefferies warned that Evelyn’s price tag might shave around 2% off NatWest’s earnings per share through 2028 compared with walking away. Over at Aberdeen, Luke Bartholomew flagged the risk that the broader economy could be stuck waiting a while for the next cut if energy shocks drag on.
At this point, investors aren’t giving much credit to the longer-term strategy. NatWest sits 13.5% higher than it did a year back, LSEG/FTSE Russell numbers show, but Friday’s close suggests macro risk remains the bigger concern—outweighing any optimism about buybacks or deals.
