AMSTERDAM, Feb 12, 2026, 13:49 CET
- Nebius posted Q4 revenue of $227.7 million, missing a $247.5 million estimate; shares fell in premarket trading
- Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $15 million; quarterly capital spending hit $2.06 billion
- CEO Arkady Volozh lifted end-2026 annualized run-rate revenue guidance to $7 billion–$9 billion
Nebius Group N.V. said fourth-quarter revenue missed analysts’ estimates, and the AI cloud firm’s shares slid about 3.5% in U.S. premarket trading on Thursday. Revenue rose to $227.7 million, below a $247.5 million consensus estimate. (Investing)
The timing matters because investors have priced a lot of future demand into AI infrastructure names, even as the industry wrestles with power, chips and the sheer cost of building data centers. Nebius is in the middle of that build-out, with results now acting like a stress test on the story.
The question isn’t whether demand exists. It’s whether the company can keep scaling without spending itself into a corner, and whether newer “AI cloud” providers can defend margins against bigger platforms with deeper pockets.
Nebius reported adjusted EBITDA — a non-GAAP measure of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — of $15.0 million for the quarter, versus a $63.9 million loss a year earlier, while net loss from continuing operations widened to $249.6 million. Purchases of property and equipment jumped to $2.056 billion, and the company said it would discuss results on a webcast at 8:00 a.m. Eastern (2:00 p.m. CET). (Nebius Assets)
Adjusted EBITDA also undershot what some market trackers had been looking for. TipRanks pegged expectations at $22.55 million, alongside the same $247.5 million revenue figure. (TipRanks)
In a letter to shareholders, founder and CEO Arkady Volozh said Nebius ended 2025 with annualized run-rate revenue, or ARR, of $1.25 billion, above its prior guidance. “We enter 2026 with strong momentum,” he wrote, and the company said it was on track for ARR of $7 billion to $9 billion by end-2026 — a figure it calculates by multiplying the last month’s revenue by 12. It also lifted its 2026 contracted power guidance to more than 3 gigawatts — electricity secured for data centers — and flagged an unused at-the-market equity program, a tool that lets it sell new shares into the market over time. (Nebius Assets)
That ambition leans hard on a small number of giant contracts. Nebius signed a deal worth about $3 billion with Meta to provide AI infrastructure over five years, after earlier landing Microsoft as a customer, Reuters reported, putting it in the mix with so-called “neocloud” providers — smaller firms renting out Nvidia-powered computing — and rivals such as CoreWeave. (Reuters)
The Microsoft contract was valued at $17.4 billion and could expand if demand rises, Reuters reported in September, when Nebius shares hit a record high. “This deal provides unprecedented clarity on the company’s long-term revenue potential,” said Hamed Khorsand, an analyst at BWS Financial, at the time. (Reuters)
Ahead of the earnings release, Benzinga said analysts expected a loss of 54 cents per share and pointed to an average one-year price target around $143.67, with the stock up about 120% over the past 52 weeks. (Benzinga)
Not everyone came in leaning bullish. Seeking Alpha contributor RI Research rated Nebius “Hold” ahead of the print, citing a weak revenue surprise history and warning that dilution could follow in 2026 as the company funds big AI contracts and data center expansion. (Seeking Alpha)
Another preview on Investing.com said investors were focused on whether Nebius can hit aggressive growth targets while managing heavy capital spending and rising depreciation, noting that eight of 11 analysts rated the stock a buy. It also pointed to a familiar tension in recent coverage: Freedom Capital Markets started with a buy rating, while Morgan Stanley opened with an equalweight stance and questioned near-term profitability. (Investing)
But the downside case hasn’t gone away. If power projects slip, hardware stays tight, or big customers slow their build-outs, the company could end up with expensive capacity and a bigger financing problem than the market is currently pricing.
