PERTH, May 11, 2026, 00:14 AWST
Northern Star Resources Ltd starts the week with investors focused on whether a A$500 million share buyback can help steady the gold miner while it pushes through a costly mill expansion at Kalgoorlie. The ASX-listed stock last traded at A$21.16 on Friday, down 2.49% on the day and well below its A$31.96 52-week high.
The timing matters because Northern Star is trying to do two things at once: hand cash back to shareholders and spend heavily to lift future output. Its own site listed a May 8 ASX notice as the latest announcement; the filing was routine, showing 34,154 ordinary shares issued or transferred after performance rights converted, not a new operating update.
Northern Star said in April that its board had approved an on-market buyback of up to A$500 million, starting on or about April 23 and running for as long as 12 months, subject to market conditions and capital needs. Managing Director and CEO Stuart Tonkin said the program reflected “compelling value” in the share price, while the company warned there was no assurance it would buy back the full amount.
The buyback follows a quarter that improved cash flow but did not remove the main operating question. Northern Star sold 380,807 ounces of gold in the March quarter at an all-in sustaining cost, or AISC, of A$2,709 an ounce; AISC is a mining industry measure of the cost of producing gold while keeping mines running. The company kept its FY26 guidance at above 1.5 million ounces sold and AISC of A$2,600 to A$2,800 an ounce.
KCGM remains the pressure point. Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines, which includes the Fimiston open pit known as the Super Pit and the Fimiston and Gidji processing plants, currently treats more than 13 million tonnes a year; Northern Star has approved an expansion aimed at lifting mill capacity to 27 million tonnes a year by FY29, including a two-year ramp-up.
The March-quarter report said the KCGM mill expansion was still on track for commissioning in early FY27, but FY26 project capital expenditure rose to A$680 million-A$700 million from A$640 million-A$660 million because of poor construction productivity and cost inflation. Tonkin said the FY26 outlook “remains particularly dependent on mill throughput at KCGM,” with both downside and upside possible. NSR Limited
Morningstar Australia, in a May 7 note by Tyger Fitzpatrick citing global mining analyst Jon Mills, said Northern Star was the cheapest relative gold miner in its ASX coverage but still materially overvalued under Morningstar’s long-term gold-price assumptions. The note said Northern Star shares had fallen 20% after downgraded production guidance in March and that Mills expects the Hemi project to add about 500,000 ounces of production by 2030.
The competitive backdrop has shifted, too. Reuters reported last week that Regis Resources would take over Vault Minerals to create Australia’s third-largest listed gold producer, a deal executives said would add scale and more than A$500 million in tax benefits.
Even so, Northern Star remains the larger benchmark in the local gold sector. Reuters Breakingviews wrote that the merged Regis-Vault group, at about 700,000 ounces a year, would be “half the size” of Northern Star, which it described as Australia’s leader and the world’s 10th-ranked gold producer. Reuters
Hemi is part of why investors still watch the stock closely. Northern Star acquired the Pilbara project from De Grey Mining through a court-approved scheme on May 5, 2025; the company lists Hemi’s mineral resources at 11,174koz and ore reserves at 6,002koz. Resources are estimates of gold in the ground; reserves are the portion judged economically mineable under stated assumptions.
The risk is that the buyback buys time, not a fix. Slower KCGM throughput, further capital inflation, a weaker gold price or delays at Hemi could leave Northern Star returning cash while its project bill stays high. That is the hard question in the stock now: not whether gold prices are supportive, but whether the company can convert spending into ounces without another reset.
