PERTH, May 11, 2026, 00:14 AWST
Investors are zeroed in on Northern Star Resources Ltd and its A$500 million share buyback as the gold miner faces pressure from an expensive mill expansion at Kalgoorlie. Shares closed at A$21.16 Friday, off 2.49% for the session, and still a long way from the 52-week peak of A$31.96. Google
Timing is key here. Northern Star is juggling a shareholder payout while also ramping up investment to boost production down the line. On its website, the most recent release is a standard ASX filing from May 8—34,154 ordinary shares issued or transferred after performance rights conversion. No fresh operating news there. NSR Limited
Northern Star announced in April that the board signed off on an on-market buyback for as much as A$500 million, set to kick off around April 23 and potentially last up to 12 months, depending on market conditions and its capital requirements. “Compelling value” in the share price drove the decision, according to Managing Director and CEO Stuart Tonkin. The company also cautioned investors there’s no guarantee the entire amount will be repurchased.
Northern Star’s buyback comes after a quarter that boosted cash flow, though the core operational uncertainty remains. The miner moved 380,807 ounces of gold in the March quarter, reporting an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,709 per ounce—a figure reflecting the expenses tied to ongoing production. FY26 guidance stays unchanged: more than 1.5 million ounces expected to be sold, with AISC forecast between A$2,600 and A$2,800 per ounce.
KCGM is still the spot to watch. Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines—home to the Super Pit and the Fimiston and Gidji plants—handles over 13 million tonnes annually right now. Northern Star has signed off on a plan to double output, targeting 27 million tonnes per year by FY29, with a ramp-up slated to run two years. NSR Limited
The March-quarter update kept the KCGM mill expansion on schedule for early FY27 commissioning, but flagged higher FY26 project capex, now expected at A$680 million to A$700 million—up from the earlier A$640 million-A$660 million range. Poor construction productivity and cost inflation drove the increase. Tonkin noted that FY26 “remains particularly dependent on mill throughput at KCGM,” leaving room for both downside and upside. NSR Limited
In a note dated May 7, Tyger Fitzpatrick of Morningstar Australia referenced global mining analyst Jon Mills, writing that among ASX-listed gold miners, Northern Star stands out as the cheapest—though, even so, Morningstar still sees it as significantly overvalued based on its own long-term gold price forecasts. Northern Star shares have slid 20% following the company’s reduced production guidance in March, the note added. Mills projects that the Hemi project could contribute around 500,000 ounces of output by 2030. Morningstar
The landscape is changing. Just last week, Reuters broke the news: Regis Resources is set to acquire Vault Minerals, a move that will form Australia’s third-largest listed gold producer. Executives are touting increased scale and tax advantages topping A$500 million from the deal. Reuters
Still, Northern Star holds on to its lead spot in Australia’s gold industry. According to Reuters Breakingviews, the combined Regis-Vault business would pump out around 700,000 ounces annually—just “half the size” of Northern Star. The note calls Northern Star Australia’s top player, and it sits 10th among global gold producers. Reuters
Hemi keeps Northern Star in the spotlight for plenty of investors. The Pilbara project switched hands on May 5, 2025, when Northern Star took it over from De Grey Mining via a court-approved scheme. Right now, Hemi’s mineral resources are listed at 11,174koz, with ore reserves pegged at 6,002koz. The resource number refers to gold still underground; reserves reflect what management figures can be mined profitably under current assumptions. NSR Limited
There’s a risk the buyback just delays tough choices. If KCGM output keeps lagging, project costs climb, gold slips, or Hemi gets pushed back, Northern Star might still be sending cash to shareholders even as spending stays elevated. That’s the crux facing the stock: the real issue isn’t gold’s support, it’s whether the company can turn out more ounces for its money without being forced into yet another overhaul.
