New York, Feb 20, 2026, 10:01 (EST) — Regular session
Early Friday saw Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares ticking up 0.4% to $188.6, following word from a source that the semiconductor heavyweight is nearing a $30 billion stake in OpenAI. The AI firm is aiming to pull in over $100 billion at a valuation close to $830 billion, according to the same source. This fresh investment would take the place of a plan from September that had centered on OpenAI acquiring Nvidia systems. Now, most of the capital is expected to go toward buying Nvidia chips. 1
The report landed just days ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, a date traders now watch as a pulse-check for AI and data-center appetite. Nvidia will break out its fourth-quarter and full-year numbers on Feb. 25, with the webcast slated for 2 p.m. PT. 2
After a turbulent kickoff to the year for megacap tech, investors are watching closely for any indication that AI infrastructure spending hasn’t lost steam. Nvidia, with a 7.8% weight in the S&P 500 and now the biggest company by market cap, tends to move the whole index. “It’s hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise,” said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower. Over at Alpine Macro, Nick Giorgi said CEO Jensen Huang has to project “confidence in his own customers.” 3
Markets stayed jittery as U.S. data showed growth cooling off and inflation sticking higher—a tough setup for tech names sensitive to interest rates. Fourth-quarter GDP came in at a 1.4% annualized pace, missing forecasts. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation measure for the Fed, gained 0.4% in December, with core PCE—excluding food and energy—matching that rise. 4
Still, there’s a clear risk staring at Nvidia: the bar is high, and the AI rally isn’t coasting like it was. “Not everyone’s going to win and not all expectations are going to be met,” said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments. 5
Options markets are signaling traders expect a notable swing when earnings drop. Short-term straddles — contracts targeting sizable moves either way — are pricing in about a 7% shift, according to MarketWatch. That’s bigger than the typical post-earnings move seen in the past. 6
Nvidia’s results are the main event on next week’s risk calendar, a litmus test for the AI wave and the payoff from all that investment. Investors are also keeping an eye on numbers from software names like Salesforce and Intuit as the conversation turns to the speed of AI-driven business change. 7
The OpenAI funding angle shifts things again: Nvidia’s role isn’t limited to supplying picks and shovels anymore. Now it’s being tapped for actual capital to back some of its largest customers—a closer feedback loop that might help keep demand steady, but also piles on risk in a more concentrated way.
Nvidia has set its next key event for Feb. 25: the company plans to release written CFO commentary before the earnings call, which kicks off at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET). 8
