AMSTERDAM, Jan 27, 2026, 16:10 (CET)
- Investors are watching whether ASML raises its 2026 sales outlook when it reports earnings on Wednesday.
- ASML’s EUV lithography tools are central to making the most advanced AI chips, and it is the only EUV supplier.
- Big chipmakers are lifting 2026 capital spending plans, a key driver for demand for ASML systems.
ASML investors are watching whether the Dutch chip equipment maker lifts its 2026 sales forecast when it reports earnings on Wednesday, after a sharp rally in its shares. The company has become a focal point for the supply chain behind Nvidia’s in-demand AI processors. 1
That matters now because chipmakers are ramping up factory investment as shortages squeeze parts of the semiconductor market and push up chip prices. ASML sits in the middle of that spending because its machines “print” the tiny circuitry onto silicon. 2
ASML, based in Veldhoven in the Netherlands, counts Taiwan’s TSMC and Intel among its customers. It builds the precision lithography tools used to make leading-edge chips, a segment that has drawn fresh attention as the AI arms race accelerates. 3
The company’s shares have doubled since last April and gained about 25% this month, the report said, as investors bet customers will keep lifting orders. Analysts have also been raising estimates, some running ahead of ASML’s own guidance for flat-to-modest sales growth in 2026. 4
ASML’s grip is tightest in extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, lithography, the short-wavelength light used for the smallest features in advanced chips. John West of Yole Group called ASML “the only game in town” for EUV. 5
ASML’s high-end tools have helped make it Europe’s most valuable listed company, with market value recently topping $500 billion, the report said. In EUV, ASML uses lasers to vaporise tin droplets 50,000 times a second to create 13.5-nanometre light, a level of complexity rivals have struggled to match. 6
Chipmakers are lifting spending plans to expand capacity, with TSMC planning to raise capital spending 37% in 2026 to $56 billion. Analysts also estimate Samsung is targeting $40 billion, SK Hynix $22 billion and Micron $20 billion, according to LSEG data cited in the report. 1
Analysts estimate about a quarter of chipmaker capital expenditure goes to lithography, largely flowing to ASML, and they see that share rising for AI-heavy production. Mizuho analyst Kevin Wang said he sees “China business upside” for ASML in 2026. 7
But the bet is not one-way: a pullback in chipmaker spending, delays in ASML’s effort to ramp output, or faster progress by rivals in advanced lithography could pressure expectations that have raced ahead of company guidance.
