NEW YORK, May 4, 2026, 17:13 EDT
- Occidental shares climbed ahead of first-quarter earnings, which are due out after Tuesday’s closing bell.
- The latest move higher in oil prices adds heft to the report, though analysts are divided over just how much of it is reflected in current prices.
- June’s CEO switch raises a fresh issue: just how fast Richard Jackson will tighten up the company’s drilling, debt, and low-carbon plans.
Occidental Petroleum shares pushed higher on Monday ahead of the oil producer’s Q1 earnings release, with a flurry of bullish options activity adding fuel to a rally that’s already being driven by firmer crude prices and an upcoming change at the top.
Timing is key here. Occidental enters earnings with oil-heavy names back in favor, thanks to Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude surging as tension flares near the Strait of Hormuz. Investors, though, still haven’t decided: is OXY’s 2026 momentum just riding commodity tailwinds, or is there something fundamentally changing inside the company? Brent crude sets prices globally; WTI does that in the U.S.
Occidental shares traded at $60.27, up 2.66%, with volume near 10.3 million shortly after the New York market closed, according to the company’s investor page. The site put the stock’s 52-week range between $38.72 and $67.45.
First-quarter results from the company are due out after markets shut on Tuesday, May 5, with a conference call set for 1 p.m. ET the following day, Wednesday, May 6. The timing leaves traders barely any time to parse earnings before oil-market swings set in.
Wall Street isn’t singing from the same hymn sheet. According to Seeking Alpha, the average EPS forecast comes in at 58 cents, with revenue at $5.64 billion. StockStory, meanwhile, flagged that the market’s looking for a 3.7% year-over-year drop in revenue, and pointed out that most analysts have trimmed their revenue estimates in the past month.
Occidental reported in its pre-earnings filing that it averaged $69.91 a barrel on worldwide oil in the first quarter, with natural gas liquids coming in at $18.99 a barrel, and $1.20 per thousand cubic feet for natural gas. The NGLs category covers ethane, propane, and similar products separated from raw gas streams.
Scotiabank’s B. Zhang bumped Occidental’s projected fiscal 2026 EPS sharply higher, to $5.05 from just $0.30, according to MarketBeat. The analyst left the “Sector Perform” rating unchanged, sticking with a $57 price target. That rating typically signals expectations in line with peers—not a straightforward buy call. MarketBeat
Bulls, meanwhile, point to balance-sheet fixes and greater efficiency. An Insider Monkey piece picked up by Yahoo Finance outlined a bullish view from Cristobal Botanch’s Beyond the Noise Substack and referenced Occidental’s trailing and forward price-to-earnings ratios as of April 24; price-to-earnings measures how the stock trades relative to profit per share.
There’s a concrete figure behind the deleveraging move: Occidental wrapped up its $9.7 billion OxyChem sale to Berkshire Hathaway in January. CEO Vicki Hollub said at the time the transaction would sharpen Occidental’s focus on oil and gas, while firming up the balance sheet.
Jackson’s move is up next. On May 1, Occidental announced that CEO and president Vicki Hollub will step down effective June 1. Chief Operating Officer Richard Jackson will step in, and take a board seat as well. Hollub called it “now is the right time” for her to transition out. Jackson, for his part, cited a focus on “organic improvement and execution.” Oxy
Analysts outside the company saw the leadership change as a move rooted in capital discipline rather than symbolism. BlackRock managing director Will Su described Jackson as a “proven communicator.” Over at Roth Capital, Leo Mariani said Jackson’s immediate priorities center on cutting more debt and clarifying the company’s strategy. Melius Research’s James West commented that Occidental’s shift had “positioned the company for success,” though he noted this wasn’t “yet reflected” in the share price. Reuters
Peer numbers paint a patchy picture. According to StockStory, Chevron managed 2.1% revenue growth from a year earlier and outperformed expectations, whereas ConocoPhillips saw revenue drop 6.1%, but even that came in above estimates. Now the focus shifts to Occidental, which needs to show if its production strategy and cost discipline can hold up as oil prices run higher.
Still, the trade isn’t without downside. Occidental flagged that its first-quarter numbers are preliminary—some adjustments might not be reflected yet. The company pointed to a laundry list of risks: debt loads, volatility in commodity prices, OPEC and non-OPEC supply moves, tariffs, geopolitics, operational snags, even permitting holdups.
Tuesday’s report faces a tight window. Even if Occidental delivers a headline beat, investors will be watching for proof of discipline on costs, debt, and capital spending. They’ll also be looking for clearer signals on what Jackson plans to keep, scale back, or accelerate after June 1.
