NEW YORK, Feb 11, 2026, 12:35 (ET) — Regular session
- Brent rose nearly 2% to trade around $70 a barrel; U.S. WTI climbed toward $65
- Middle East risk headlines lifted prices even as U.S. crude inventories surged
- Traders next watch the IEA’s market update on Thursday and U.S. inflation data on Friday
Oil prices gained nearly 2% on Wednesday, lifted by U.S.-Iran tensions, while a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories capped gains. Brent crude futures were up $1.22, or 1.77%, at $70.02 a barrel by 11:47 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.21, or 1.89%, to $65.17. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said tensions were supporting prices “although there has been no supply disruption so far,” and Mizuho’s Robert Yawger said U.S. output “came back with a vengeance.” (Reuters)
The move followed a subdued close a day earlier as the market waited for clearer direction from diplomacy, inventory data and U.S. economic releases. Brent settled down 0.3% at $68.80 on Tuesday and WTI ended 0.6% lower at $63.96, Reuters reported. Analysts at Gelber & Associates said traders were “hesitant to press either direction” without confirmation that supply flows were being materially affected. (Reuters)
Washington kept the risk premium alive. President Donald Trump said he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East as the U.S. and Iran moved toward another round of talks, Reuters reported. Israel’s Channel 12 quoted Trump as saying: “Either we reach a deal or we’ll have to do something very tough.” (Reuters)
Any escalation that threatens shipping routes would matter quickly for crude traders. The Strait of Hormuz is a key corridor for Middle East exports, and the market tends to price the risk long before barrels are actually lost.
On the data side, the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels last week to 428.8 million barrels, far above analyst expectations in a Reuters poll. A stronger U.S. labor market also fed the view that demand can hold up, even as investors debate how quickly higher supply is building.
OPEC, meanwhile, pointed to softer demand for the wider OPEC+ group’s crude in the second quarter and published data implying a small surplus for that period if production holds near January levels. The producer group forecast demand for OPEC+ crude will average 42.20 million barrels per day in the second quarter, down 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the first quarter; bpd is barrels per day. OPEC said a weaker dollar helped demand because “This decline has made dollar-priced commodities, including oil, cheaper for consumers and provided some additional support for global demand.” (Reuters)
But the downside case is sitting in the numbers. Rising inventories, resilient U.S. production and broader supply growth could drag prices lower if the Middle East rhetoric cools and barrels keep flowing. In a separate update, the EIA said it expects petroleum and other liquids production to exceed global demand, pushing Brent to an average $58 a barrel in 2026 from $69 in 2025, with $53 forecast for 2027 as global stocks build. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Traders now look to Thursday’s International Energy Agency update for fresh guidance on whether 2026 tilts toward surplus or deficit, along with the next U.S. inventory prints. U.S. inflation data on Friday is also on the radar for signals on interest rates and fuel demand, while OPEC+’s March 1 meeting remains the next big policy marker for supply into April.
