New York, Feb 11, 2026, 12:15 EST — Regular session
- Spot silver climbed roughly 3.6% to $83.56/oz, bouncing back after Tuesday’s slide
- Robust U.S. jobs numbers eased expectations for immediate rate cuts, yet weak retail sales kept the possibility of rate changes alive
- Traders are eyeing Friday’s U.S. CPI release as the key catalyst for the next major market shift
Silver jumped over 3% in New York Wednesday, recovering some losses from a steep drop the previous day. By 11:58 a.m. EST, spot silver was trading at $83.56 an ounce, marking a 3.55% gain. The price fluctuated between $80.75 and $86.36 during the session.
This matters because silver has become a quick indicator of where rates and growth expectations are headed, beyond just being a metal trade. Since it pays no interest, changes in bond yields can sharply impact its price, one way or the other.
Silver recently hit a record $121.60 on Jan. 29 amid a wave of retail-fueled volatility. According to the Silver Institute, prices hovered around $81, marking a 14% gain this year after a massive 147% jump in 2025. The group also predicts the market will face a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit in 2026, with demand exceeding supply by 67 million ounces.
Wednesday’s rally pushed on despite a stronger U.S. jobs report, which dimmed expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve pivot. Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, commented the report “will shut the tiny crack in the door for a March rate cut that retail sales opened yesterday.” Reuters
U.S. retail sales in December came in flat, defying expectations for growth, while “core” retail sales dipped 0.1%, suggesting consumers might be scaling back on major purchases. This softer data weighed on Treasury yields and strengthened arguments for looser monetary policy down the line. Reuters
Fed rhetoric hasn’t cleared things up. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan described herself as “cautiously optimistic” that the current policy will bring inflation down to the 2% target, though she warned inflation might remain stubbornly high. Reuters
Markets reacted immediately to the jobs report. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed roughly 4.5 basis points, landing at 4.19%, while the dollar index first strengthened, then pulled back. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, noted the data “trims but does not derail expectations for a June Fed cut.” Reuters
The government also updated recent data. The Labor Department reported that a benchmark revision revealed the economy added 862,000 fewer jobs in the year ending March 2025 than initially thought, highlighting a softer labor market than it first appeared.
Silver’s rebound appeared in U.S.-listed trackers tied to the metal. Shares of the iShares Silver Trust climbed roughly 3.2% to $75.78.
But the market remains jittery. Standard Chartered noted that “Silver (exchange-traded product) outflows are keeping silver vulnerable to volatility in the near term,” though it also highlighted an undersupplied market in the long run. Reuters
Friday brings the U.S. consumer price index report, set for 8:30 a.m. ET on Feb. 13. If inflation comes in hotter, expect yields and the dollar to climb, putting pressure on silver. A cooler figure, on the other hand, could boost rate-cut bets and support bullion prices.
