London, April 30, 2026, 11:04 BST
Brent crude futures shot up to $126.41 a barrel on Thursday, hitting levels last seen in March 2022. The rally followed news that U.S. President Donald Trump would receive updates on possible new military actions targeting Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz still functionally shut. WTI, the top U.S. crude benchmark, climbed past $108.
Hormuz isn’t just another shipping lane—it’s essential. The International Energy Agency puts the 2025 daily flow at roughly 20 million barrels of crude and oil products, or about a quarter of all seaborne oil trade worldwide. On top of that, LNG shipments out of Qatar and the UAE via the strait make up close to 20% of global LNG trade.
The impact is spilling past oil markets. As crude climbs, costs for fuel, shipping, and manufacturing all head higher, feeding stagflation worries—sluggish growth with stubborn inflation—right when central banks are working to rein in prices.
A surge took hold early on, with Brent pushing past $123 in Asian hours, according to the Financial Times. Sky News called out a four-year peak north of $122, and later The Guardian pegged the move above $126, marking a jump of over 13% in just one day.
The catalyst: a tougher U.S. stance. According to Axios, Trump shot down an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the blockade ahead of nuclear negotiations. U.S. Central Command, the report said, had lined up options—among them, a “short and powerful” round of strikes, and a strategy aimed at controlling part of the strait to get commercial shipping moving again. Axios
A White House official said Trump sat down with Chevron and several other energy firms this week, talking about how to maintain the blockade “for months if needed” while trying to shield U.S. consumers from the impact. Chevron confirmed CEO Mike Wirth was at the meeting, focused on the state of global oil markets. Reuters
Shipping traffic hasn’t picked up: just six vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz in a 24-hour window, according to Reuters. That’s a sharp drop from the usual 125 to 140 crossings a day before the war started on February 28. Even after the ceasefire on April 8, the U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center says commercial flows are still sluggish.
Duration, not just price, is top of mind for analysts. “Oil prices need little encouragement to climb,” said John Evans at PVM, who cautioned that doubters of Brent hitting $150 should “look away now.” IG’s Tony Sycamore puts the odds of a quick fix or a Hormuz reopening as “dim.” Reuters
According to ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, the market’s “losing hope for any quick resumption in oil flows” after U.S.-Iran talks fell apart and Trump reportedly turned down Iran’s proposal. That’s the trade front and center: not only the threat of conflict, but the missing barrels. AP News
Pressure is mounting in U.S. numbers, too. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude stocks dropped by 6.2 million barrels in the week ending April 24. Gasoline inventories posted their eleventh straight weekly decline. “It’s getting ugly fast,” said Mizuho’s Bob Yawger, noting the gasoline drawdown just as the summer driving season approaches. Reuters
Supplies aren’t loosening up much. OPEC+ is on track for just a 188,000 barrel-per-day increase, based on what sources told Reuters ahead of Sunday’s meeting. With Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have all run into trouble keeping exports on pace. For now, the UAE leaving OPEC and OPEC+ doesn’t change much—but that could shift down the line.
Companies aren’t moving differently. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the group won’t resume regional activity until there’s “real stabilisation” in Hormuz. About 15% of the company’s upstream output is currently offline, with nine tankers caught in limbo; Pouyanne estimated clearing full tankers out and bringing empties in would need “2-3 months.” Reuters
Still, there’s a flip side to the rally. If Hormuz gets credibly reopened, supply dynamics shift fast, and prices up here tend to eat into demand—people and businesses pull back on fuel when it gets expensive. Paul Gamble at Fitch points out the UAE quitting OPEC doesn’t really matter as long as Hormuz stays shut, but if the strait comes back online, exports could jump.
