NEW YORK, February 23, 2026, 14:27 EST — Regular session
Oil slipped Monday, though prices hovered close to a six-month peak as markets eyed upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and digested new tariff jitters. Brent crude gave up 37 cents to trade at $71.39 a barrel by 12:44 p.m. ET, down 0.52%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 27 cents, or 0.41%, landing at $66.21. “More open to talking about their nuclear program,” said Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group, citing recent signals out of Tehran. 1
The drop follows a steep rally that’s begun to alter the inflation calculus. A Reuters columnist points out Brent is now just about 2% lower than it was a year ago—back in early January, it was down nearly 30% year-on-year. That turnaround comes down to “base effects”—the year-on-year comparisons reflected in inflation numbers. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, figures a $10 sustained move higher in oil tacks on 0.2 percentage point to annual U.S. inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic called any reversal “super concerning”. 2
Traders are finding demand signals tough to interpret. The U.S. Supreme Court, by a 6-3 vote, tossed out most of last year’s tariffs. President Donald Trump has talked up a possible new global levy, even as officials search for ways to preserve broader duties. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said investors “want to know the rules of the road” before putting money to work. 3
U.S. Customs and Border Protection plans to stop collecting tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as of 12:01 a.m. EST Tuesday, following the Supreme Court’s ruling that called the duties illegal. The agency informed shippers it would switch off the relevant tariff codes, but it hasn’t given guidance about refunds for importers. 4
Iran’s ready to cut a deal—offering nuclear concessions if it means sanctions relief and official recognition of its uranium enrichment rights, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. That’s a signal, analysts noted, that Tehran wants to keep diplomatic options open as military tensions ramp up. “Iran will use that time for various reasons, including to avoid a strike,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 5
Some banks have begun lifting their longer-term price forecasts, despite maintaining that crude supplies remain ample. Goldman Sachs bumped up its fourth-quarter 2026 targets for Brent and WTI by $6, now at $60 and $56 a barrel, respectively, pointing to lower oil stocks across OECD nations—the wealthier industrialized group. The firm is sticking with its estimate of a 2.3 million barrel per day surplus for 2026. Goldman noted that a $6 “risk premium” tacked on due to supply fears might disappear if tensions subside, and said Brent could drop $5, with WTI sliding $8 late in 2026, should sanctions ease and more crude hit the market. 6
Yet those triggers can reverse quickly. A diplomatic breakthrough might wipe out the geopolitical premium almost overnight. On the other hand, a rough tariff battle could weigh on growth and fuel demand right as the market transitions into the year’s next stretch.
At the moment, attention is divided: border policy on one side, the Gulf on the other. Traders want answers from Tuesday’s tariff collection halt—specifically, which rates are actually in force. Then comes Thursday, with the U.S.-Iran meeting that could either hint at softer sanctions or spark worries that tensions are ramping up once more.
