Houston, Feb 25, 2026, 13:02 CST — Regular session
- Brent fell to about $70.65 a barrel; U.S. WTI eased to roughly $65.37
- U.S. crude inventories jumped 16 million barrels last week, EIA data showed
- Traders are watching U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva on Feb. 26 and an OPEC+ meeting on March 1
Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday after a sharp build in U.S. crude stocks undercut the Middle East risk premium. Brent futures were down 12 cents, or about 0.2%, at $70.65 a barrel by 11:16 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was off 26 cents, around 0.4%, at $65.37. “A bearish report with a large crude build,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, adding that geopolitics still drives the tape. Reuters
The build matters because it lands right as traders have been paying up for supply risk. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 16.0 million barrels to 435.8 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 20, the Energy Information Administration said, even as refinery runs slipped and imports picked up. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.0 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 0.3 million; the EIA said “products supplied” — a proxy it uses for demand — averaged 21.4 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up 5.4% from a year earlier. Eia
A day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute had also flagged a large crude build, keeping traders primed for a downside surprise in the official numbers. The API estimate pointed to an 11.4 million-barrel rise for the same week, far above expectations compiled by the data provider. Tradingeconomics
There was another wrinkle in the EIA report: the agency’s “adjustment” factor — the plug number that reconciles measured flows with stock changes — hit a record 2.7 million barrels per day, adding noise to an already jumpy market. Big swings in that line can make traders wary of leaning too hard on a single week’s headline build. Channelnewsasia
Supply fears have not gone away. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday a deal with the United States was “within reach, but only if diplomacy is given priority,” ahead of talks set for Thursday in Geneva between U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and an Iranian delegation. Reuters
Washington’s tone has been part of the bid in crude this week. In his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon and called the country’s leaders and proxies “murderous,” while the U.S. builds up forces in the region. Reuters
On the producer side, OPEC+ is expected to weigh whether to restart output increases. The group is likely to consider raising production by 137,000 barrels per day for April after a three-month pause, three people familiar with the thinking told Reuters; eight members are due to meet on March 1. Reuters
Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s top producer, has also drawn up a contingency plan tied to the Iran standoff. The kingdom is increasing production and exports as a hedge against any disruption if U.S. military action hits regional flows, two sources familiar with the plan said. Reuters
Macro jitters are still in the mix, too, with traders tracking the impact of new U.S. tariffs announced this week on growth and fuel demand. Earlier in the week, crude prices pushed toward multi-month highs on Middle East headlines, even as broader risk assets stayed uneven. Dtnpf
But the downside case is simple: if U.S. crude stocks keep swelling as refineries run softer and imports rise, the market’s cushion looks bigger, and the geopolitics premium can leak out fast. The upside risk runs the other way — a breakdown in talks or any hint of disruption through the Gulf would force traders to reprice supply risk again, regardless of one week’s inventory data.
Next up is Thursday’s U.S.-Iran meeting in Geneva, followed by the March 1 OPEC+ gathering. Traders also get the next U.S. weekly petroleum report on March 4, which will show whether this week’s crude build was a one-off or the start of a trend. Eia
