New York, March 3, 2026, 13:29 EST — Regular session
Oil shot up roughly 8% Tuesday, with Brent climbing to levels not seen since July 2024, as the U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran threw fuel shipments into disarray and stoked worries over a drawn-out fight. By 10:35 a.m. EST, Brent had rallied $6.07, or 7.8%, to $83.81 a barrel; U.S. West Texas Intermediate jumped $6, up 8.4%, settling at $77.23. Both benchmarks are now showing overbought signals after the rally. Andrew Lipow, a consultant, noted that any further attacks on key infrastructure in the region could tack on another $10 to prices, putting Brent in striking distance of $90. 1
The Strait of Hormuz remains shut for a fourth straight day after Iran targeted five vessels, disrupting a vital route for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments. Vortexa data shows tanker movement plummeted to just four crude carriers on March 1—normally, there are 24 a day since January—leaving hundreds of ships idling near ports like Fujairah. Iraqi officials said Rumaila’s output has been scaled back by 700,000 barrels a day, while West Qurna 2 is down 460,000, and they’re warning the cuts could top 3 million daily if tankers stay blocked from loading. 2
President Donald Trump was preparing to look over measures aimed at curbing energy prices as conflict persisted, according to two people familiar with the talks. Sources said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright planned to hand Trump their recommendations Tuesday afternoon. The officials may indicate willingness to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if oil costs keep surging, one person noted. Trump told reporters Americans might have to deal with elevated oil prices for a brief spell. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said price-mitigation efforts would start phasing in on Wednesday. 3
Saudi Aramco is pushing crude away from the bottleneck, redirecting some shipments through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, sources told Reuters. That pipeline can handle about 5 million barrels a day. “There are logistical trade-offs involved,” said Richard Bronze, co-founder at Energy Aspects, as buyers assess just how much oil could actually make it west. 4
The crude rally isn’t stopping at oil—it’s pushing up prices for middle distillates, too, the key barrels for shipping, agriculture, and some electricity production. On Monday, U.S. diesel futures pushed above $3 a gallon, levels last seen in November 2023. Philip Verleger, an energy economist, says distillate stocks are scraping the bottom of their typical range. As of Feb. 20, U.S. distillate inventories stood at roughly 120.4 million barrels, which is more than 5% under the five-year seasonal average, according to government data. 5
Gasoline is starting to sting wallets again. On Monday, average prices at U.S. pumps topped $3 a gallon—levels last seen in November. Tom Kloza, adviser at Gulf Oil, sees a shot at $3.25 this week. “Gasoline prices are psychologically powerful,” said Siebert Financial CIO Mark Malek. He pointed out that every $10 move in crude typically tacks on about 25 cents a gallon. 6
Tuesday’s surge followed a sharp move on Monday. Brent jumped 6.7% to finish at $77.74 after peaking at $82.37, while WTI wrapped up 6.3% higher at $71.23, off an intraday high of $75.33. “Key questions are how much supply will be lost, for how long, and how do major powers react?” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman at S&P Global. 7
Citi expects Brent to stay in the $80 to $90 range per barrel this week, but says prices could slide back to $70 if tensions ease. Goldman Sachs puts the market’s current risk premium—what traders shell out for added uncertainty—around $18 a barrel. Macquarie’s Vikas Dwivedi noted the world could absorb a shutdown for a week or two, but warned the fallout would “escalate rapidly” if it drags into a third week. 8
Currency desks aren’t just eyeing crude—there’s plenty of spillover risk, too. According to ING, a 10% jump in oil prices can knock emerging-market current account balances down by 40 to 60 basis points. ING flagged Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines as particularly vulnerable among importers. Citigroup, meanwhile, flagged the danger of a drawn-out oil surge “aggressively de-anchor[ing]” inflation expectations in countries with thinner reserves, including Argentina, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Turkey. 9
If flow disruptions start to ease, that could tip the scales the other way. Standard Chartered noted that expectations of ample supply have kept a lid on price risk, despite the bank lifting its 2026 Brent crude outlook to $70, up from $63.50. The lender pointed to a firmer forward curve—later delivery prices have moved up—and flagged a risk skewed to the upside should fighting hit Iran or other oil exporters in the region. 10
Oil prices could shoot past $100 a barrel if tankers can’t get moving through Hormuz soon, Wood Mackenzie warned, pointing out the chokepoint handles roughly 15% of global supply. “The key question is when do vessels re-establish export flows,” said Alan Gelder, senior VP for refining, chemicals and oil markets at the firm. OPEC+ intends to raise output by 206,000 barrels a day in April, with another meeting set for April 5 to decide what’s next. But, Wood Mackenzie said, none of that may matter if shipping stays stuck. 11
There’s a key data update on deck: the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report lands Wednesday, March 4, after 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Geopolitics are already moving prices, so if U.S. crude or product inventories come in off expectations, the market could react sharply—potentially reinforcing or unseating the current bid. 12
