New York, March 3, 2026, 07:20 EST
- U.S. stock index futures fell as oil extended gains on fears of wider supply disruption.
- Brent climbed above $83 a barrel as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply.
- Traders pushed back expectations for the next Fed rate cut as inflation risks grew.
U.S. stock index futures fell on Tuesday and oil prices jumped again as the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran tightened its grip on global energy supply routes. Nasdaq 100 futures led declines, down more than 2% in early New York trading, while crude and gas prices stayed under heavy upward pressure. 1
The market’s problem is timing: traders were already debating when the Federal Reserve might cut rates again, and now they have an energy shock moving fast through shipping, fuel and inflation expectations. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, costs are rising in places that show up quickly on invoices — freight, diesel, jet fuel — and then in the data. 2
Brent crude was up about 8% at $83.79 a barrel and earlier hit $85.12, its highest since July 2024, while U.S. WTI traded around $76.54 after touching its highest since June. Traders focused on Iran’s threats around Hormuz and on reports of damage and shutdowns across the region. 3
Marine insurers have started cancelling war-risk coverage for vessels in the Gulf, and ship trackers showed around 150 ships stranded in and around Hormuz after vessels were hit. “Each underwriter is invariably increasing rates or in some instances… declining to offer terms right now,” David Smith, head of marine at broker McGill and Partners, said. 4
Freight markets moved from tense to chaotic. The benchmark rate to ship 2 million barrels of crude from the Middle East to China surged to about $423,736 per day, LSEG data showed, while LNG tanker rates jumped more than 40% in a day. “There will be very strong competition for any available vessels,” Fraser Carson, principal analyst for global LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said. 5
Washington signaled it is preparing a response at home as pump prices rise. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright would announce plans on Tuesday to soften the impact of higher energy costs on Americans. “Starting tomorrow, you will see us rolling out those phases,” Rubio told reporters. 6
U.S. stocks ended narrowly mixed on Monday after swinging sharply, as investors bought beaten-down tech names even with crude up about 6% on the day. The Dow fell 0.15%, the S&P 500 finished up 0.04% and the Nasdaq gained 0.36%, according to market data cited by Reuters. 7
Moves were lopsided. Energy shares rose with oil, while travel-linked names took another hit as higher jet fuel costs and airspace disruptions fed into risk appetite. Shares of Exxon Mobil and Shell were among the energy gainers, while Delta Air Lines fell with the airline group. 8
Behind the prices, physical supply is getting squeezed. Qatar halted liquefied natural gas output — roughly 20% of global LNG supply — and Reuters reported shutdowns or suspensions also hit Saudi Arabia’s biggest domestic refinery and several Israeli gas fields, among other sites. QatarEnergy was set to declare force majeure, a clause that lets a supplier pause deliveries because of events beyond its control, Reuters reported. 9
The inflation angle is already reshaping rate bets. Traders have pushed back expectations for the Fed’s next quarter-point cut to September from July, and U.S. Treasury yields climbed, Reuters reported, as global equity markets sank again in Europe and Asia. 10
But markets are still trading the “duration” question. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly, or if emergency measures blunt the shock, oil could cool and the pressure on stocks and rate expectations could ease just as fast.
