New York, April 25, 2026, 14:28 (EDT)
- Palantir ended Friday at $143.09, gaining 1.1%. Still, Barron’s noted the shares are off roughly 20% for the year.
- Palantir faces its next major test on May 4, with first-quarter earnings coming out after the U.S. market closes.
- The $300 million deal with the USDA, plus the Pentagon officially putting Maven in writing, have both helped maintain momentum on the government-growth narrative.
Palantir Technologies’ shares have been under pressure, but Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake isn’t budging. He reaffirmed his Buy rating and left his $200 price target untouched—standing behind one of the highest-priced large-cap software stocks in the AI sector. Investors, though, are blunt: can Palantir’s growth actually justify that kind of valuation?
Timing is key here. Palantir’s first-quarter earnings arrive May 4, the first update since its bold 2026 targets and a stretch of fresh government contracts. The company projects Q1 revenue between $1.532 billion and $1.536 billion, with a full-year forecast of $7.182 billion to $7.198 billion.
Palantir shares ended at $143.09, putting the company’s market cap near $367.9 billion. With 2025 revenue at $4.48 billion, that valuation remains hefty—and doesn’t offer much cushion for any weak results or hesitant outlooks.
According to Barron’s, McPeake is eyeing roughly 40% upside from where shares trade now, pointing out that Palantir stands out as one of the rare software firms actually delivering enterprise AI revenue growth. Still, the stock sits about 31% under its November 2025 peak—a signal that even the better-known AI names have faced markdowns this year.
A Seeking Alpha article from April 24 cast Palantir’s recent moves as a turning point, with the company pivoting from pure government contracts toward securing steady defense deals and ramping up its U.S. commercial AI push. The same piece didn’t ignore the downside: Palantir’s valuation stood out as steep, trading at roughly 110 times forward earnings.
Bulls haven’t budged, and Palantir’s numbers tell you why. For the fourth quarter, revenue shot up 70% year-over-year to $1.407 billion. U.S. commercial revenue soared 137%, landing at $507 million. Adjusted operating margin clocked in at 57%. CEO Alex Karp dubbed Palantir “an n of 1.” The company pointed to its Rule of 40 score—127%—which blends revenue growth with adjusted operating margin, a software industry barometer. SEC
There was movement from the government side this week, too. USDA and Palantir rolled out a $300 million Blanket Purchase Agreement—a setup allowing the agency to make purchases under predetermined terms—aimed at shoring up farm security and service programs. “Protecting America’s farmland is protecting America itself,” said USDA CIO Sam Berry. Palantir’s Ali Monfre called it “raising the bar” on government support for farmers. Business Wire
Defense is still the big-ticket win. Last month, Reuters said the Pentagon tapped Palantir’s Maven AI as its core command-and-control system, giving it “program of record” status—a key move that can lock in a longer budget cycle. Maven pulls data from satellites, drones, radar, and other sensors to spot threats. Reuters
Competitive heat is real. On Friday, Reuters reported that Alphabet is lining up as much as $40 billion for an investment in Anthropic, the company behind Claude AI models—capital keeps pouring into major model providers as they battle for customers. Back in March, Reuters also noted that Palantir had to strip out Anthropic’s Claude code from segments of Maven, following a directive from the government; it’s a reminder that these model suppliers can turn into partners one day and potential risks the next.
Insider Monkey, in a piece linked by Yahoo Finance, pushed the bull thesis hard—tagging Palantir as a “trillion-dollar contender.” The article cited the company’s AI Platform boot camps, fast U.S. commercial expansion, and hefty adjusted margins. Take note: that’s outside commentary, not Palantir’s own guidance. Still, it’s a snapshot of how the market’s viewing things. Right now, Palantir’s getting priced less like your run-of-the-mill software shop and more like a backbone for future enterprise and government AI. Insider Monkey
The catch: markets look like they’re already betting on Palantir sticking the landing. The stock trades at roughly 341 times earnings, market data show. Even the company’s own filings call out risks—clients might not go through with their options, and contracts could get dropped for convenience. If the commercial AI ramp slows, defense deals get hung up, or competitors like Anthropic push harder, shares could take a hit well before any dent appears in revenue.
No one’s doubting that Palantir is expanding—growth is happening. Heading into May 4, though, what matters is whether the company can hit growth that’s in line with its own guidance. Investors, after all, still see the stock as a standout play on AI software. Is that going to be enough?
