MILAN, May 4, 2026, 18:02 CEST
Telecom Italia (TIM) is set to report first-quarter results this week, with analysts projecting only slight revenue gains and a heavier debt burden—factors that add new scrutiny to the figures underpinning Poste Italiane’s proposed buyout.
Analyst consensus—not to be confused with TIM’s own guidance—points to revenue of 3.32 billion euros, up 1.2% year-on-year on a comparable basis. EBITDA comes in at 973 million euros, according to the average estimate. Capital expenditure is pegged at 423 million euros, while adjusted net financial debt, after company tweaks, lands at 7.31 billion euros as of the end of March. Soldi Online
It’s a big week as both sides shift from negotiations to putting numbers on paper. TIM’s board signs off on first-quarter figures May 6. Poste’s board also gathers that day, just ahead of its May 7 results call—timing that puts two new financial snapshots in play days after Poste unveiled its cash-and-share bid for TIM. Gruppo TIM
Nerves showed. Poste slid 2.26% to 22.08 euros in late Monday trading on Borsa Italiana. TIM lost 2.32%, landing at 0.6558 euros. The deal’s equity portion remains tethered to these daily swings—investors have no choice but to price them in. Borsa Italiana
Poste is pitching an OPAS—Italy’s public cash-and-share offer—putting up 0.167 euro in cash plus 0.0218 fresh Poste shares for each TIM share. Poste pegs the package at 0.635 euro per TIM share, reflecting a 9.01% premium over TIM’s March 20 closing price. On revenue, Poste estimates the merged entity could have logged roughly 26.9 billion euros for 2025, pro-forma EBIT at 4.8 billion euros, and a workforce topping 150,000.
Italy’s communications watchdog hasn’t flagged any major issues so far. Agcom President Giacomo Lasorella told lawmakers that, from a regulatory perspective, the Poste-TIM proposal doesn’t bring “significant consequences” at this stage. Any effects would likely be limited, he said, mostly connected to how PosteMobile fits with TIM. The regulator is still watching developments. Borsa Italiana
Poste Chief Executive Matteo Del Fante has insisted the deal is about industry, not just the numbers. Addressing lawmakers, Del Fante pointed out markets had “evaluated positively” the transaction. He called both Poste and TIM historic Italian names and said Poste’s goal with TIM is to “accompany” Italy’s system as it undergoes transition. Segugio.it
Poste’s quarterly figures aren’t the only thing analysts are watching. Morningstar’s review highlighted Equita SIM’s forecasts: first-quarter net revenue at 3.4 billion euros, adjusted EBITDA at 870 million euros. Barclays described the operating trends as roughly tracking guidance. Still, the review flagged Berenberg’s take — the offer might have to get better to meet the minimum acceptance threshold. Investor response, not what’s on the slides, will ultimately make or break this bid. Morningstar
TIM hasn’t delivered a definitive response to investors on the offer. Back in March, the board took note of Poste’s bid. A month later, it tapped Evercore and Goldman Sachs for financial advice, and brought in Bonelli Erede along with Gatti Pavesi Bianchi Ludovici on the legal side, to review the proposal. Gruppo TIM
More action on deck this week: TIM savings shareholders have a window from May 6 through May 19 to take up voluntary conversion into ordinary shares. The mandatory swap hits on May 21, the same day savings shares will be pulled from Borsa Italiana. With that, TIM trims its capital structure—a move coming as the offer process keeps rolling. MarketScreener
The field’s crowded. According to Agcom’s September 2025 data, TIM held 33.0% of fixed broadband and ultrabroadband lines, putting it just ahead of Fastweb-Vodafone, which landed at 29.8%. Wind Tre trailed with 14.6%. On the mobile side, Fastweb-Vodafone led, grabbing 29.9% of total SIMs. TIM followed with 25.9%, Wind Tre posted 24.1%, and Iliad came in at 11.2%. AGCOM
TIM isn’t limiting itself to the Poste talks. Back in March, the company reached a non-binding deal with Fastweb-Vodafone to build and run as many as 6,000 new mobile towers across Italy—a move aimed at accelerating 5G coverage, though it still needs regulatory clearance. Gruppo TIM
First-quarter results won’t decide the takeover, but they could shape the mood. If revenue holds up, capex stays in check, and debt lands near consensus, Poste can point to a solid industrial case for its bid. On the flip side, soft EBITDA or a jump in debt would hand the skeptics stronger ground to demand a better offer.
