MILAN, May 4, 2026, 18:02 CEST
Telecom Italia (TIM) heads into this week’s first-quarter results with analysts expecting modest revenue growth and a higher debt load, putting fresh pressure on the numbers behind Poste Italiane’s proposed takeover.
The consensus, an average of outside analyst estimates rather than a management forecast, sees TIM revenue at 3.32 billion euros, up 1.2% from a comparable year earlier. EBITDA, or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, is expected at 973 million euros, with capital expenditure seen at 423 million euros and adjusted net financial debt — net borrowings after company adjustments — at 7.31 billion euros at the end of March.
That matters now because both companies move from deal talk to accounting marks this week. TIM’s board is due to approve first-quarter financial information on May 6, while Poste’s board meets the same day before a May 7 results presentation, giving investors two fresh sets of figures after Poste launched its cash-and-share offer for TIM.
The market was not waiting calmly. In last Borsa Italiana trades on Monday, Poste shares were down 2.26% at 22.08 euros, while TIM fell 2.32% to 0.6558 euros, leaving the deal’s stock component exposed to the same daily moves investors must price into the offer.
Poste’s bid is an OPAS, an Italian public purchase-and-exchange offer paid in cash and shares. The company is offering 0.167 euro in cash and 0.0218 newly issued Poste shares for each TIM share, a package Poste valued at 0.635 euro per TIM share, a 9.01% premium to TIM’s official price on March 20. Poste says the combined group would have had about 26.9 billion euros in 2025 aggregate revenue, 4.8 billion euros in pro-forma EBIT and more than 150,000 employees.
Italy’s communications regulator has not sounded an alarm, at least not yet. Agcom President Giacomo Lasorella told lawmakers that, from a strictly regulatory point of view, there were for now no “significant consequences” from the Poste-TIM offer, with possible effects seen as marginal and mainly tied to PosteMobile’s integration with TIM. He added that the watchdog would keep monitoring the market. Borsa Italiana
Poste Chief Executive Matteo Del Fante has framed the deal as industrial, not just financial. Speaking to lawmakers, he said the transaction had been “evaluated positively by markets” and described Poste and TIM as two historic Italian companies, saying Poste’s ambition with TIM was to help “accompany” Italy’s system through its transition. Segugio.it
Analysts are not treating Poste’s own quarter as the only test. Morningstar’s review cited Equita SIM estimates for Poste first-quarter net revenue of 3.4 billion euros and adjusted EBITDA of 870 million euros, while Barclays saw operating trends broadly in line with guidance. But the same review pointed to Berenberg’s view that the offer may need improving to clear the minimum acceptance hurdle, a blunt reminder that investor take-up, not strategy slides, will decide the bid.
TIM has not yet given investors its final word on the offer. Its board acknowledged Poste’s bid in March and in April appointed Evercore and Goldman Sachs as financial advisers, with Bonelli Erede and Gatti Pavesi Bianchi Ludovici as legal advisers, to examine the proposal.
Another moving piece lands this week. TIM savings shareholders can opt for voluntary conversion into ordinary shares from May 6 to May 19, with a mandatory conversion set for May 21 and delisting of savings shares from Borsa Italiana on the same date, a step that simplifies TIM’s capital structure while the offer process moves on.
The competitive backdrop is tight. Agcom data for September 2025 showed TIM with 33.0% of fixed broadband and ultrabroadband lines, ahead of Fastweb-Vodafone at 29.8% and Wind Tre at 14.6%; in mobile, Fastweb-Vodafone led total SIMs with 29.9%, followed by TIM at 25.9%, Wind Tre at 24.1% and Iliad at 11.2%.
TIM is also pursuing cost and network deals outside the Poste process. In March, TIM and Fastweb-Vodafone signed a non-binding agreement to develop and manage up to 6,000 new mobile towers in Italy, a plan meant to speed 5G rollout and subject to regulatory approvals.
The first-quarter numbers will not settle the takeover. They may set the tone. Steady revenue, controlled capex and debt close to consensus would help Poste argue that the bid rests on an industrial base; a weaker EBITDA line or a larger debt build would give holdouts a cleaner argument to press for more.
