LONDON, March 19, 2026, 16:14 GMT
- Prudential shares closed 2.24% lower in London on Wednesday after the insurer released full-year results, underperforming the FTSE 100. 1
- The company reported a 12% rise in 2025 new-business profit to $2.782 billion and said it would return more than $7 billion to shareholders over 2024-2027. 2
- Investors focused on Prudential’s 221% free surplus ratio, a measure of excess capital, which UBS said came in below what some in the market had expected. 2
Prudential plc shares fell after the Asia- and Africa-focused insurer posted stronger 2025 growth but left investors debating capital strength. The London-listed stock closed 2.24% lower at 1,071 pence on March 18, lagging the broader FTSE 100 after the results landed. 1
That matters now because Prudential has been trying to prove its tilt toward faster-growing Asian and African markets can translate into stronger cash returns for shareholders. The numbers were solid, but the market reaction suggested investors wanted cleaner proof that the group can hit its 2027 targets without stretching its balance sheet. 3
New-business profit — an insurance measure of expected profit from policies sold in the year — rose 12% to $2.782 billion. Adjusted operating profit before tax increased to $3.306 billion from $3.129 billion, while the second interim dividend rose to 18.89 U.S. cents a share from 16.29 cents. Hong Kong and mainland China were among the main growth drivers. 4
Prudential said it expects to return more than $7 billion to shareholders over 2024-2027, including a $1.2 billion buyback under way in 2026 and a $1.3 billion capital return in 2027. Chief Executive Anil Wadhwani said the group was “confident in our double-digit growth trajectory” for 2026 and remained on track for its 2027 goals. 2
The sticking point was the free surplus ratio, a measure of excess capital above business needs. It ended 2025 at 221%, down from 234% a year earlier, and UBS analyst Nasib Ahmed said he expected “a small negative reaction” because the stock had been well bought ahead of the results and management did not upgrade estimates. He flagged the 221% ratio as the main soft spot. 2
There is another side to that. Prudential’s 221% ratio still sits above its 175%-200% operating range, and S&P Global Ratings upgraded the financial strength rating of the group’s core entities to AA from AA-. Still, if growth in Hong Kong or mainland China cools, or capital rebuilds more slowly than investors expect, the richer buyback plan may not be enough on its own. 2
The comparison with peers is getting sharper. AIA Group, a close Asian peer, reported a 15% rise in 2025 value of new business and launched a $1.7 billion buyback this week, giving investors another yardstick for both growth and capital returns across the sector. 5
Analyst Henry Heathfield at Morningstar wrote that Prudential’s 2025 results beat guidance, but uncertainty remains around whether the insurer can land its key 2027 targets. For now, he said, the shares “appear fairly valued currently.” By Wednesday’s close, the stock was 13.53% below its Feb. 4 high of 1,238 pence, with trading volume at 7.9 million shares against a 50-day average of 6.0 million. 3
