Düsseldorf, May 5, 2026, 13:15 CEST
Rheinmetall shares rose on Tuesday after the German defence group missed first-quarter revenue forecasts but kept its 2026 targets, leading investors to treat the shortfall as a timing issue rather than a break in demand. The stock was up 2.4% at 0800 GMT, Reuters reported, after preliminary numbers released late Monday showed revenue below analyst expectations.
The move matters because Rheinmetall has little room for a slow ramp this year. The company still expects revenue to grow 40% to 45% in 2026 and targets an operating margin of about 19%, while telling investors that delayed sales should move into a much stronger second quarter.
First-quarter revenue rose 7.7% to €1.94 billion, short of the €2.3 billion analysts had expected. Operating profit rose 17% to €224 million, while the operating margin — profit as a share of sales — improved to 11.6% from 10.5%, a level the company said met market expectations.
The market reaction flipped during the session. Rheinmetall had been weak before the Xetra open, then climbed to the top of the DAX; by midday, finanzen.net showed the shares up 3.82% at €1,441.20, while Hensoldt, Renk and Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems also traded higher.
Rheinmetall said the second quarter should benefit from higher deliveries in weapons and ammunition as its Murcia site in Spain returns to full-scale production, and from the handover of pre-produced military trucks to a German customer. Last year’s first quarter was flattered by deliveries pulled forward from the second quarter, making the comparison tougher this time.
The backlog is doing much of the work for the bull case. Order nominations reached €4.9 billion in the quarter, and the total Rheinmetall backlog — orders booked but not yet converted into revenue — rose to about €73 billion, up 31% from a year earlier, after the inclusion of Naval Systems backlog linked to NVL.
Sam Burgess at Goldman Sachs kept a “Buy” rating and a €2,300 target, writing that first-quarter sales were soft for timing reasons but that the release could act as a clearing event after recent share weakness. He said the full report on May 7 should strengthen confidence in second-quarter momentum and the annual targets. Finanzen
David H. Perry at JPMorgan kept an “Overweight” rating and a €2,130 target, saying the quarter was below market expectations but that Rheinmetall had explained the miss with timing effects and left all full-year targets intact. Investors, he added, are more critical now about execution than they were from 2022 to 2025. Finanzen
Chloe Lemarie at Jefferies also kept a “Buy” rating, with a €2,220 target. She described the first-quarter revenue number as weak, but said Rheinmetall’s comments on the first half were reassuring. Finanzen
The defence peer read-across was still positive. MarketScreener, citing dpa-AFX, said Renk and Hensoldt rose in Rheinmetall’s wake, while Bernstein analyst Adrien Rabier still saw Rheinmetall as his preferred European industrial defence stock and the leading player in Germany.
But the second-quarter catch-up now has to happen. Afonso Osorio at Barclays said revenue and operating profit clearly missed expectations and free cash flow was negative, pointing to the Spanish ammunition-plant explosion, delayed truck deliveries and tough year-earlier comparisons. Operating free cash flow is the cash left after operating needs and investment spending; weak cash flow can matter even when profit margins look steady.
The next check comes quickly. Rheinmetall is due to publish full first-quarter results on May 7, while Hensoldt, a German defence-electronics peer, is expected to report first-quarter results on May 6, keeping the sector under close watch this week.
