London, Feb 26, 2026, 08:32 GMT — Regular session
Rio Tinto (RIO.L) shares fell 1.3% to 7,364 pence by 0831 GMT on Thursday, giving back some of Wednesday’s surge as London trade got going. The stock traded between 7,336 and 7,515 pence and is still close to its 52-week high of 7,557. (Google)
The pullback lands after a sharp run that has tightened the valuation gap with peers, and broker caution is creeping back in. Barclays downgraded Rio to “Equal Weight” — effectively a neutral stance — and cut its price target to 6,600 pence, pointing to iron ore seasonality and what it called the stock’s “tightest valuation spread” versus BHP since 2020. (TipRanks)
That matters because Rio’s shares have been trading more like a macro commodity bet than a company story, with sentiment swinging on metals prices and risk headlines. “Investors remained fragile,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, as copper helped lift miners earlier this week amid lingering tariff worries. (Reuters)
Iron ore is the other moving part, and it is more political than usual. Talks between major miners and China Minerals Resources Group (CMRG), a state-backed buyer, are being watched for any shift that could pressure prices; “Iron ore is the bedrock of the economy,” Australia’s resources minister Madeleine King said, while BHP CEO Mike Henry said negotiations were “a little bit wider” than in past years. (Reuters)
Rio closed at 7,461 pence on Wednesday, up about 2.6%, after pushing to a new 52-week high, according to MarketWatch’s delayed LSE quote. (MarketWatch)
The company also filed routine insider dealing paperwork this week. A regulatory notice showed Matt Holcz, chief executive of the iron ore unit, received vested shares under an incentive plan and sold part of the award to cover taxes and deductions. (Investegate)
Investors are still digesting Rio’s annual results from last week, which underscored both the pull of copper and the weight of iron ore. The miner reported underlying earnings of $10.87 billion for 2025 and declared a final dividend of 254 U.S. cents a share; “A good result, perhaps as not as impressive as BHP,” said Andy Forster of Argo Investments. (Reuters)
Chief executive Simon Trott has pitched the dividend and balance sheet as the anchor while the portfolio shifts. “Our strong cash flow and balance sheet enable us to sustain a 60% payout ratio,” he said in a statement. (Rio Tinto)
But the trade can turn quickly. If iron ore prices soften on weaker Chinese demand or tougher supply terms, the earnings mix still leaves Rio more exposed than the copper narrative suggests, and a stock near its highs has less tolerance for bad news.
Traders also have a calendar to watch. Rio’s ordinary shares are due to trade ex-dividend on March 5, with the ADRs on March 6, ahead of a planned payment on April 16, a company notice showed. (Stockopedia)
