New York, March 4, 2026, 04:13 (EST) — Premarket
Rio Tinto’s U.S. shares (RIO) slipped 0.4% to $94.90 ahead of Wednesday’s opening, following a sharp 4.3% drop to $95.31 at Tuesday’s close. These New York-traded American depositary receipts, or ADRs, track the miner’s London-listed stock. 1
Equity futures remained under pressure, with investors on edge as oil prices climbed on the back of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude advanced almost 2% and is now up over 13% for the week—a move that’s reigniting anxiety over inflation and rates. 2
Iron ore remains Rio’s main story, heavily swayed by Beijing’s growth stance. In Singapore, the benchmark April contract edged down 0.3% to $98.75 a tonne. But over in Dalian, the most-active futures added 0.4%, closing at 752 yuan. 3
Company headlines kept rolling in the background. Rio Tinto secured a conditional green light for as much as C$18.95 million ($13.2 million) from the Canadian government to back its gallium project—a key metal for defence and chips. The miner’s aiming for a pilot plant in Saguenay, targeting four tonnes of annual output by 2027, with room to ramp up down the line. “This strategic partnership will strengthen the North American supply chain for gallium,” said aluminium and lithium CEO Jerome Pecresse. 4
Rio Tinto has signed off on a $473 million plan to restart the Zulti South project at Richards Bay Minerals in South Africa, where it holds a 74% stake. The site sat idle for six years due to community unrest. “Signals our determination to grow RBM,” said managing director Werner Duvenhage. Construction kicks off in the first quarter, with production targeted for the fourth quarter of 2028. 5
Each project highlights the usual gamble in this stock: immediate cash flow from bulk commodities, with a side bet on future gains from “critical” materials. That can juice the narrative, sure, but it doesn’t always play on days when the market’s slashing risk.
BHP and Vale tend to track each other, especially when iron ore prices or sentiment shift. That pattern can leave the sector vulnerable when investors pull back from cyclicals.
Still, a lot could go wrong. If Beijing holds back on stimulus, iron ore prices may fall, and renewed trouble at South African operations could derail timelines again — precisely what Rio claims it’s been trying to avoid.
Attention shifts to March 5, as China’s National People’s Congress kicks off. Premier Li Qiang is widely expected to outline a work report that could pin the 2026 growth target between 4.5% and 5%. Societe Generale economist Michelle Lam says, “If confirmed, this would signal a stronger willingness … to tolerate slower but more sustainable growth.” 6
