NEW YORK, Feb 16, 2026, 18:01 EST — The session has ended.
- Rivian finished the previous session up roughly 27%, closing at $17.73.
- Investors jumped in after the EV maker laid out fresh targets for 2026 deliveries and capex, with the company gearing up for its more affordable R2.
- Investors now watching for specifics on March 12, plus any first hints about how R2 launches will actually roll out.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is set to draw plenty of attention Tuesday, with shares coming off a roughly 27% surge on Friday. U.S. markets were closed Monday for Washington’s Birthday.
This shift is significant, shaking up short-term sentiment for a company that’s been moved by progress points rather than profitability. Now, traders are sizing up Rivian’s shot at sustaining fresh momentum—or if those gains start to unravel after the long weekend wraps up.
For Rivian, next week shifts focus to execution—timelines for R2 production, pricing specifics, and just how much cash runway the company has to push the new model toward customers’ garages.
Rivian reported $1.286 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, along with consolidated gross profit of $120 million. The EV maker is aiming to deliver between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles in 2026. For the year, adjusted EBITDA loss is pegged at $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion, with capital expenditures expected to land between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion. First R2 customer deliveries are still lined up for the second quarter, according to the company, which also plans to unveil more on its products and lineup March 12.
Analysts are zeroing in on how Rivian handles its schedule. “For the stock itself, nothing matters more than a timely launch for the R2 SUV,” Piper Sandler analysts emphasized, following the company’s pitch for the lower-priced model expected to start near $45,000. Reuters
RJ Scaringe, Rivian’s founder and CEO, told Reuters the company’s growth hinges on the R2 launch. The R1 lineup and delivery van numbers are expected to stay roughly where they are, while spending climbs as Rivian builds out the new platform. Cash on hand as of December came in at $3.58 billion, Reuters noted, and Rivian is lined up for a $2 billion injection from Volkswagen this year through their tech joint venture. The company hasn’t ruled out raising more funds.
Wall Street isn’t seeing eye to eye, even after Friday’s jump. Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu bumped Rivian to Buy and lifted his price target to $23, calling out “early signs” of a turnaround. UBS’s Joseph Spak, meanwhile, shifted to Neutral with a $16 target, flagging concerns over “cash burn” and the risks tied to the R2 rollout. Streetinsider
The risk story here doesn’t get much simpler. Rivian is still running at a loss, with a hefty 2026 spending plan looming. If the R2 timetable wobbles, the market may have to rethink everything from demand to costs and how much cash Rivian needs — particularly given how fast EV pricing and incentives can shift the outlook.
Tuesday brings another test: traders eye if the stock can hang onto those reclaimed Friday levels, and whether trading volume remains strong as markets sort through the updated guidance and a barrage of new analyst targets.
March 12 is circled—Rivian plans to release more R2 info then. After that, the bigger milestone: first customer deliveries, which are slated to kick off in Q2.
