New York, March 2, 2026, 18:14 (EST) — After-hours
- RTX shares rose 4.7% on Monday, outperforming a choppy broader market.
- Defense contractors gained as investors weighed the risk of a longer Middle East conflict and higher military spending.
- Traders are watching oil prices, Washington headlines and Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
RTX Corp shares climbed 4.7% to $212.16 in late after-hours trading on Monday, as investors rotated into defense stocks after U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran shook global markets.
The move matters because the rally is less about near-term earnings and more about what comes next: a likely surge in demand for missile defense, air defense and replenishment orders if the conflict drags on. RTX’s Raytheon unit is a major U.S. supplier of those systems.
U.S. stocks ended narrowly mixed after a volatile session, with energy, tech and defense shares offsetting losses elsewhere. “I just don’t think the average market participant is that moved by the conflict until the price of oil gets to $100,” said Alex Morris, CEO of F/m Investments. 1
Bill Smead, founder and chairman of Smead Capital Management, said investors were reverting to familiar winners. “When people get scared, they go back to what is comfortable,” he said. 1
The weekend strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Reuters reported, raising fears of retaliation and wider spillovers across the region. 2
Oil has been the pressure point. The fight has pushed crude higher and revived inflation worries, a combination that can hit most stocks even as it supports defense and energy. 3
Helima Croft, RBC Capital’s head of commodities research, said the oil impact hinges on whether Iran’s forces escalate further. “The ultimate oil price impact … will likely hinge” on that response, she said. 2
Fresh U.S. data underscored the inflation risk. The ISM survey showed manufacturing held steady in February, but input prices surged as tariffs and higher oil filtered through supply chains, a backdrop that could keep the Federal Reserve cautious. 4
For RTX, the bull case is straightforward: a longer conflict can pull forward orders and speed deliveries. The harder part is execution, as Washington presses contractors to produce faster and supply chains stay tight.
There is also a risk the trade fades. A quick de-escalation, or a sharp reversal in oil, could pull money back out of the sector, while higher rates and higher costs can still squeeze valuations even for defense names.
In commodities, traders were already looking past headline supply promises. Reuters columnist Clyde Russell wrote that an OPEC+ output increase looks “symbolic” against the bigger question of how long disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lasts. 5
Next up, investors will track overnight headlines from the region and Friday’s U.S. employment report for February, which could reset expectations for Fed policy and risk appetite into the week. 6
