New York, March 2, 2026, 18:14 (EST) — Trading after the bell.
- RTX jumped 4.7% on Monday, outpacing a shaky broader market.
- Defense contractors moved higher, with investors factoring in the possibility of an extended Middle East conflict and a boost to military budgets.
- Oil prices, fresh headlines out of Washington, and Friday’s U.S. jobs data are all on traders’ radar.
RTX Corp surged 4.7% to $212.16 during late after-hours action on Monday. Investors piled into defense names following U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran—a jolt that rattled global markets.
This isn’t just a reaction to earnings. The rally is tied to what looms ahead—potentially heavier demand for missile defense, air defense and restocking orders should the conflict continue. RTX’s Raytheon unit stands out as a key U.S. supplier for those systems.
U.S. equities closed with little change, swinging throughout the session as gains in energy, tech, and defense names balanced out declines in other sectors. “I just don’t think the average market participant is that moved by the conflict until the price of oil gets to $100,” said Alex Morris, CEO of F/m Investments. 1
Bill Smead, who runs Smead Capital Management, sees investors returning to old favorites. “When people get scared, they go back to what is comfortable,” he said. 1
Reuters said this weekend’s strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a development that’s fueling fears of retaliation and broader regional spillover. 2
Oil’s been the sore spot. The conflict sent crude climbing, and that’s reignited inflation jitters—bad news for most stocks, though it’s a positive for defense shares and energy names. 3
Helima Croft, who leads commodities research at RBC Capital, pointed to the possibility of a bigger oil reaction if Iran’s forces decide to step things up. “The ultimate oil price impact … will likely hinge” on what Iran does next, Croft said. 2
New numbers out of the U.S. put inflation concerns back in focus. The ISM’s February manufacturing survey was flat, but input costs jumped sharply, with tariffs and pricier oil pressuring supply chains—a setup likely to keep the Fed on its toes. 4
For RTX, the bullish argument hinges on one thing—a drawn-out conflict could accelerate orders and push deliveries ahead. The real challenge? Execution. Washington wants contractors moving quickly, but supply chains remain constrained.
The trade isn’t a sure thing. If tensions cool quickly or oil prices plunge, cash could flow right back out of the sector. Defense stocks aren’t immune either—higher rates and rising costs can still pressure their valuations.
Commodities traders shrugged off headline supply pledges, focusing instead on the bigger picture. Reuters’ Clyde Russell called the OPEC+ output hike “symbolic,” arguing the real issue is the duration of disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. 5
Investors now look to overnight news out of the region, with close attention on Friday’s U.S. jobs data for February. That report holds the potential to shift Fed policy expectations—and with them, risk appetites for the coming week. 6
