Adelaide, June 13, 2026, 07:32 (ACST)
- Santos finished the session at A$8.07 on June 12, flat on the day. The stock traded from A$7.90 up to A$8.07 and stayed just under its 52-week high of A$8.24.
- Brent crude fell 3.37% to finish at US$87.33 a barrel on June 12. Traders cited optimism over a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal.
- Santos’ Q2 update in July is the next big focus for the stock. Investors are looking for details on the Pikka project ramp, Barossa LNG numbers, and how the company is handling oil price changes.
Santos Limited (ASX: STO) finished flat at A$8.07 on Friday. Shares traded from A$7.90 to A$8.07 during the day. Oil-linked Australian energy stocks struggled as crude prices turned sharply lower, but Santos held steady, ending about 2% off its 52-week high of A$8.24. The S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.98% to 8,804, but energy names dragged while Brent crude dropped under US$89 a barrel.
Santos shares tend to move with oil, LNG and free cash flow, so the drop in Brent crude matters. Brent lost $3.05 to settle at US$87.33 as traders bet a possible U.S.-Iran deal could ease tension at the Strait of Hormuz. “What’s got the market going down is the Iranians saying there is a memorandum of understanding,” John Kilduff of Again Capital told Reuters. Tamas Varga at PVM Oil Associates said headlines were pushing the market again, with confidence rising that the Strait might reopen. Reuters
ASX 200 slipped 0.23% on June 11 as Brent held near US$94.08, with Santos and other energy stocks up slightly. Just a day earlier, Middle East tensions had pushed energy shares higher. That quick turnaround shows how fast Santos’ share price can shift when crude prices move on geopolitical headlines. Right now, Santos is trading more on oil-supply worries and whether risk cools off, not any new company news in the last day.
The main bull case for the company is still tied to output growth from Barossa LNG and Pikka in Alaska. Santos hit first oil at Pikka in May. According to Reuters, the project should hit a gross output plateau of 80,000 barrels a day in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with sales revenue expected a couple months after that. “A positive announcement by Santos with the backdrop of strong oil prices and an increasing production outlook,” said Craig Sidney, senior investment adviser at Shaw and Partners. Reuters
Santos is sticking to its 2026 production guidance of 101 million to 111 million barrels of oil equivalent, or mmboe. That lumps together oil and gas in one unit. Reuters has reported Barossa gas and Pikka oil could push production up by as much as 30% in 2026. CEO Kevin Gallagher said, “Once at full rates, Barossa LNG and Pikka phase 1 together are expected to lift Santos’ production by around 25 to 30 per cent by 2027 compared to 2024 levels.” With that in mind, investors are focused on the July second-quarter numbers, especially looking for early Pikka volumes, steady LNG output, and details on realized prices. Reuters
The argument against the stock is that much of the rebound is likely priced in. Santos is trading at A$8.07, near the top of its 12-month range and well above the A$5.90–A$5.92 lows. Analyst data from Investing.com puts the consensus at Buy from 12 analysts, with an average 12-month target of A$8.962, so about 11% upside. That’s not a big buffer for an energy company with exposure to oil prices, LNG project risks, cost pressures and geopolitics.
Santos looks more fairly priced than cheap after its rebound into 2026. Bulls are counting on Pikka hitting targets, steady output at Barossa LNG, and strong oil. Risks are falling Gulf tensions, weaker demand, or quicker supply growth, which could hit crude prices and Santos’ outlook. Goldman Sachs cut its 2027 Brent estimate to US$80 per barrel, citing more supply and demand risk. The U.S. Energy Information Administration still sees Brent near US$105 in June and July before declining as more oil hits the market.
