London, February 16, 2026, 15:50 GMT — Regular session
Key points:
- Serco shares were slightly higher late in the session, keeping the stock near recent highs.
- Investors are looking to the March 5 full-year results for fresh guidance and contract pipeline detail.
- Defence-linked UK names were broadly firmer on the day.
Serco Group plc shares edged up on Monday, trading at 298.20 pence at 1551 GMT, as gains across several defence-related London stocks helped keep a bid under the government services contractor. (Google)
The stock was up about 1.0 pence, or 0.3%, from Friday’s close, and traded between 295.00 pence and 299.00 pence on the day, according to Hargreaves Lansdown. The shares are up about 86% over the past year. (Hargreaves Lansdown)
Why it matters now is simple: the rally has left less room for surprises. With Serco still tied to long-dated public sector contracts, investors tend to wait for hard numbers, not chatter.
The next hard marker is close. Serco is due to report full-year 2025 results on March 5, according to its investor calendar. (Serco)
In a pre-close update in December, Serco pointed to revenue of about 4.9 billion pounds for 2025 and set initial 2026 guidance for revenue of about 5.0 billion pounds and underlying operating profit of about 300 million pounds. Chief Executive Anthony Kirby said the company saw “strong growth prospects, particularly in the defence sector.” (Book-to-bill, a common contract metric, compares order intake with revenue; over 100% suggests backlog is growing.) (Investegate)
Investors will also have one eye on the finance function. Serco has said CFO Nigel Crossley will step down after the March 5 results, with Mark Reid due to join as CFO on March 6. (Investegate)
What traders tend to watch in the run-up is whether Serco’s contract flow is steady and whether margins hold up as older work rolls off and new programmes ramp. A lot of that turns on timing, not just demand.
The risk is that timing cuts both ways. Government procurement can slip, contracts can be contested, and one awkward mobilisation can eat into profit even when revenue is moving.
For now, the next catalyst is the March 5 statement and call, when Serco is expected to update its outlook and give a clearer read on order intake and cash generation into 2026.
