London, February 16, 2026, 15:50 GMT — Regular session
What to know:
- Serco shares edged up late in the session, keeping the stock hovering close to its recent highs.
- Eyes now turn to March 5, when investors expect full-year numbers and a clearer look at the contract pipeline.
- UK defence stocks mostly traded higher this day.
Serco Group plc was last seen up at 298.20 pence by 1551 GMT on Monday, nudged higher as a handful of defense-focused names in London provided support for the government services contractor. 1
Shares picked up roughly 1.0 pence, or 0.3%, since Friday’s close, moving within a 295.00 to 299.00 pence range during the session, Hargreaves Lansdown data showed. Over the past year, the stock has surged around 86%. 2
The reason this is relevant now is clear—the rally has narrowed any margin for unexpected moves. Serco remains anchored to its lengthy public sector contract book, so investors are holding out for concrete figures instead of rumors.
Another major checkpoint is just ahead: Serco has scheduled its full-year 2025 results for March 5, according to its investor calendar. 3
Back in December, Serco’s pre-close update flagged 2025 revenue landing near 4.9 billion pounds, with early numbers for 2026 penciling in around 5.0 billion pounds on the top line, plus underlying operating profit hitting roughly 300 million pounds. “Strong growth prospects, particularly in the defence sector,” Chief Executive Anthony Kirby remarked. (Book-to-bill—essentially the ratio of new orders to revenue—tops 100% when the order backlog expands.) 4
Attention is also turning to Serco’s finance team. The company confirmed CFO Nigel Crossley is set to exit following the March 5 results. Mark Reid takes over as CFO the next day, on March 6. 5
In the lead-up, traders typically zero in on Serco’s contract flow, gauging if it’s holding steady and if margins withstand the transition as legacy contracts wind down and fresh projects gear up. Timing—rather than pure demand—often drives those numbers.
Timing isn’t a one-way bet. Procurement from the government might lag, contracts could face challenges, and just a single rough mobilisation has the potential to hit margins—even if revenue keeps ticking higher.
Next up: Serco’s statement and call on March 5. That’s when investors will be looking for an updated outlook, plus more detail around order intake and how cash generation is shaping up through 2026.
