New York, February 16, 2026, 18:24 (EST) — The market finished the session closed.
- U.S. stock markets shut down Monday for Washington’s Birthday, with trading set to pick up again on Tuesday. (New York Stock Exchange)
- Shopify closed out Friday at $112.70, gaining 1.84% for the session after a choppy run following its earnings report. (Investing)
- Shopify’s $2 billion share buyback kicks off Feb. 17, according to a recent filing. (SEC)
Shopify Inc’s U.S. shares are set to trade actively Tuesday, with Wall Street divided over the threat posed by generative AI “shopping agents” steering shoppers away from the platform, according to Barron’s. But analysts like Anthony Chukumba at Loop Capital and J.P. Morgan’s Reginald Smith point out that Shopify’s ecosystem — covering payments, shipping, inventory — is stickier than just a storefront builder. About 70% of analysts still rate the stock a buy, Barron’s noted. (Barron’s)
This setup is key—Shopify’s stock keeps seesawing over a single issue: will AI undercut its relevance in commerce, or entrench it even further in the checkout process? After the long weekend, traders return to a shortened week, and with a company buyback set to start, Tuesday marks the first clear look at where sentiment stands.
Timing’s another factor here. Shopify only recently released new guidance, and when growth and cash margins miss investor expectations, software stocks often get knocked down fast.
Shopify reported a 31% jump in fourth-quarter revenue, reaching $3.672 billion, with free cash flow at $715 million, according to its results release. President Harley Finkelstein called 2025 a “full throttle” year, with the company leaning into “AI commerce.” CFO Jeff Hoffmeister pointed to the share buyback as a sign of Shopify’s “position of financial and operating strength.” (SEC)
There’s a buzzword for the latest AI concern: “agentic commerce.” The idea? Software that hunts, picks, and purchases products for shoppers. Should this model take off, it threatens to reshape who controls the shopper connection—and who gets a slice of the revenue—even if the merchandise itself stays the same.
Shopify frames commerce as plumbing rather than just a website. Merchants want payments, fraud detection, tax management, shipping choices, inventory connections—regardless of whether a sale begins in a chatbot or a web browser.
Traders are eyeing the stock’s behavior as the company gets the green light to step in and buy shares. The question: does that extra demand hit the tape right away, or does broader market anxiety drown it out? Another thing on the radar—any hint that sellers are still dumping into strength after last week’s swings.
There’s still plenty of risk on the table. Should AI channels end up pulling traffic from merchant sites, Shopify might be forced to ramp up product and marketing spend just to hold its take rate steady and support merchant growth—which would pressure near-term cash flow. A hit to consumer spending would show up in volumes right away.
Up next: Tuesday’s reopening, then the repurchase plan kicks off Feb. 17. Investors will be watching both closely—a test in real time to see if buybacks can put a floor under a stock that’s still tangled in the ongoing AI narrative debate. (Shopify)
