New York, February 19, 2026, 12:35 EST — Regular session.
- Spot silver up about 1% near $78/oz in U.S. hours
- Traders are braced for Friday’s PCE inflation data and the rate-path fallout
- Geopolitics and questions around industrial demand are pulling in opposite directions
Silver prices ticked higher on Thursday, holding near the $78-a-troy-ounce mark as the U.S. session got going. XAG/USD was up 0.99% at $77.95 per ounce by 12:20 p.m. EST, after a previous close of $77.18, Investing.com data showed. (Investing)
That modest gain matters because the market is leaning hard on a single catalyst: U.S. inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is due on Feb. 20, and it is published in the monthly personal income and outlays report. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The dollar has been the main counterweight. The Labor Department said weekly initial jobless claims fell by 23,000 to an adjusted 206,000, while the dollar index was up 0.2% at 97.90 and rate futures were not pricing better than a 50% chance of a Fed cut until June, Reuters reported. “It doesn’t look like an economy suffering from higher rates,” Joseph Trevisani, a senior analyst at FXStreet in New York, said. (Reuters)
Risk headlines, though, kept buyers in the mix. U.S. national security advisers met at the White House on Wednesday to discuss Iran and were told forces deployed to the region should be in place by mid-March; “we’re being whipsawed and moving sideways with volatility,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Minutes from the Fed’s late-January meeting showed policymakers split on whether inflation might require another hike or could open the door to cuts; spot gold was up 0.6% at $5,007.46. (Reuters)
The churn has been loud even by silver standards. It jumped 5.2% on Wednesday to $77.24 after dropping more than 4% a day earlier, with Marex analyst Edward Meir saying “there is some nervousness” around geopolitical tensions and Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, calling the broader trade “a very tight trading range” for much of February. (Reuters)
Industrial demand is also getting a fresh look. Solar panel producers — a sector that uses about 196 million troy ounces of silver a year, or 17% of total demand — are stepping up efforts to replace silver with copper, after the metal’s surge over the past year tightened margins, industry experts said. “Silver is the greatest contributor to the increased cost of manufacturing solar panels,” said Derek Schnee, a senior commercial solar consultant at JK Renewables; Heraeus analysts estimated silver paste, the conductive material used on solar cells, makes up about 30% of total solar cell costs. (Reuters)
But the same U.S. data that props up the dollar can flip the script quickly for silver. A hotter-than-expected PCE reading could push rate expectations higher, lift the greenback, and pull the floor out from under precious metals again.
For now, traders are watching Friday’s PCE report and any follow-through from Fed officials after the minutes laid out a split on the next move. Iran headlines remain the wild card, with the mid-March timetable for U.S. forces in the region hanging over risk pricing.
