London, March 5, 2026, 08:35 GMT
Standard Chartered PLC has raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast, saying risks are skewed to the upside if the Middle East conflict further hits production or shipping. The bank lifted its first-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $74 a barrel from $62, raised its second-quarter view to $67 from $63, and increased its 2026 average to $70 from $63.50. It said the forward curve — the strip of futures prices — has firmed as traders reprice tight spare capacity and chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. 1
The change lands in a market already moving in gaps. Brent was up $2.44, or 3%, at $83.84 a barrel by 0722 GMT on Thursday, its fifth straight gain, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $77.10. Trade through Hormuz has remained halted and Iraq has cut output by nearly 1.5 million barrels a day, officials told Reuters. 2
Other big banks have been rewriting their numbers at the same time, underlining how quickly the risk premium is being rebuilt. Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 2026 Brent forecast to $76 a barrel, UBS lifted its 2026 average to $72, and J.P. Morgan warned a prolonged shutdown could force Iraq and Kuwait to curb exports within days. 3
The physical pinch is showing up in shipping and insurance, not just screens. Commercial war-risk cover has jumped at least five-fold in recent days, and Gallagher broker Angus Blayney said, “Rates have increased from levels that owners and charterers will be used to.” Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO, said protecting all tankers in threatened areas was “unrealistic” given the scale of naval assets required. 4
UBS said it now expects Brent to average $71 per barrel in the first quarter, implying about $80 in March, and $72 for 2026, a $10 increase from its previous forecast. The bank flagged further upside if strikes hit energy infrastructure such as Qatar LNG, and said a prolonged Hormuz closure could push prices above $100. 5
Goldman Sachs said its revised forecasts still leaned higher, with risks centred on longer disruptions to exports through Hormuz and possible damage at production facilities. “If Hormuz volumes were to remain flat for 5 additional weeks, Brent prices would likely reach $100,” the bank wrote. 6
J.P. Morgan’s analysts said supplies from Iraq and Kuwait could start shutting in within days if the strait stays closed, potentially cutting 3.3 million barrels per day by day eight of the conflict. It said Iraq and Kuwait had roughly three and 14 days, respectively, before they would be forced to halt exports that rely on the route. 7
Standard Chartered’s own daily client note on March 4 said safe-haven demand was lifting the U.S. dollar, while President Donald Trump’s pledge of insurance guarantees and naval escorts helped steady WTI around $75 a barrel after an intraday jump. The bank also said money markets had pushed back expectations for the next U.S. rate cut to September from July as the Iran conflict escalated. 8
Still, the downside case hasn’t gone away: a reopening of trade lanes, or even a lull that brings tankers back into the Gulf, could knock out part of the premium now being baked into forecasts. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said crude markets were “very well supplied” and pointed to “hundreds of millions of barrels on the water away from the Gulf,” adding the U.S. Navy would provide safe passage for tankers if needed. 9
Standard Chartered is one of several lenders whose commodities calls feed hedging decisions for airlines, refiners and industrial users. For now, its message is that supply math matters less than logistics — and the logistics look messy.
