Dubai, April 28, 2026, 17:11 GST
The United Arab Emirates plans to exit OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1, ending more than 50 years in the cartel and opening the door for Abu Dhabi to chart its own path on oil output. The Energy Ministry framed the move as a response to evolving demand needs, saying production will increase, but only in stages.
The timing isn’t great for energy traders. Brent crude pushed up to roughly $112 a barrel on Tuesday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed past $100. Supply jitters haven’t eased, with the Iran war and uncertainty at the Strait of Hormuz fueling the latest rally.
OPEC’s top concern right now: staying united. According to Rystad’s Jorge Leon, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have real spare capacity on tap — barrels that can hit the market fast. Leon described the UAE’s exit as a step in the direction of a “structurally weaker OPEC.” Reuters
According to UAE state news agency WAM, the move came after officials assessed production policy, future and current capacity, national priorities, and the requirement to satisfy market demand as disruptions in the Gulf and around Hormuz continue to hit supply. Post-exit, WAM said the UAE plans to introduce more production “gradually and measuredly” into the market. Khaleej Times
Calling it a “policy-driven evolution,” Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the UAE still backs stable markets. According to The National, the country plans to ramp up oil production from 3.4 million barrels a day to 5 million by 2027. The announcement dropped just ahead of OPEC’s scheduled meeting in Vienna on Wednesday. The National
Mazrouei told Reuters the UAE acted on its own, with no input from Saudi Arabia or any other nation, describing it as “a policy decision.” The move lands against a tense political backdrop. Reuters reported UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash labeled the Gulf reaction to Iranian attacks the “weakest historically.” Reuters
Saudi Arabia still anchors OPEC, and Russia stays the main outside player in the broader OPEC+ bloc. The UAE’s departure lands after a stretch of chilled relations with Riyadh—rivalry for investments and differing stances across the region have both sharpened.
The split stands out: just this month, the UAE was right in the thick of OPEC+ activities. On April 5, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman settled on a 206,000 barrels per day production tweak for May—and doubled down on calls to secure maritime energy corridors.
According to Argus Media, Abu Dhabi pushed up crude capacity over the past few years and has lobbied for higher OPEC+ baseline quotas. But beyond those caps, the UAE can boost production more flexibly—still, output would likely climb in measured steps, tracking demand.
This isn’t an easy call for the market. Extra UAE barrels might help if shipping routes stay open, yet right now, the shock hinges on vessel risk, supply blockages, and whether traders trust Hormuz can resume operations without another hit to flows.
There’s a chance neither camp gets what it wants in the short term. Leon flagged that the initial response “may be muted,” citing disruptions around Hormuz. On top of that, the UAE stepping outside the quota arrangement might spell “a more volatile oil market” if OPEC’s grip on supply swings slips. CNA
The timing now matters most for refiners, airlines, and major importers. UAE independence before shipping gets back to normal? That scenario risks those extra barrels falling short, not easing price pressures. But if Hormuz reopens before any split, the same shift could flip the script—what began as an OPEC rift might quickly become a new supply jolt, but this time pushing the other way.
