New York, Feb 27, 2026, 09:45 EST — Regular session
- Sunrun shares slumped roughly 19% early, hit by its updated 2026 outlook and news of a shift in its channels.
- The company is forecasting “Cash Generation” of $250 million to $450 million for 2026 and is also cutting back on affiliate volumes.
- March project financings are in focus for traders, seen as a key swing factor in the near term.
Sunrun Inc (RUN.O) tumbled nearly 19% to $16.56 after the company rolled out a 2026 strategy, shifting focus toward direct sales while scaling back affiliate efforts. Enphase Energy picked up around 5%, SolarEdge Technologies advanced about 6%. 1
Why does it matter? Sunrun’s seen as a litmus test for U.S. rooftop solar players struggling to fuel expansion without burning through cash. Investors aren’t hesitating to hit the stock when they spot even a whiff of weaker installation activity or tougher financing terms, regardless of how the bottom line appears.
For a year now, Sunrun has been pitching Wall Street on its ability to produce cash and assemble a fleet of home batteries ready to supply the grid. But judging by Friday’s selloff, traders are demanding proof this narrative lasts into 2026—not just one quarter’s worth of results.
Sunrun posted fourth-quarter revenue of $1.16 billion late Thursday, a jump of 124%. That surge came on the back of a third-quarter deal—Sunrun sold certain solar-and-storage systems linked to new customer agreements to a third party, though it continues servicing those customers. Net income attributable to common stockholders landed at $103.6 million, or 38 cents per diluted share. The company’s “Cash Generation,” a non-GAAP measure tracking cash after funding customer growth and related outflows, was $377 million in 2025. CFO Danny Abajian said Sunrun topped the midpoint of its 2025 cash target. Looking ahead, Sunrun guided for 2026 Cash Generation somewhere between $250 million and $450 million. The company also repaid $81 million in parent recourse debt during the quarter. 2
Sunrun submitted its Form 10-K annual report on Thursday. 3
During the earnings call, Chief Executive Mary Powell told listeners Sunrun plans to “dramatically reduce” affiliate partner volumes by more than 40% in 2026. That move will likely mean “slight declines in overall volumes,” though the company is still aiming for growth in its direct business. CFO Danny Abajian added that first-quarter Cash Generation should land in positive territory, but said the timing of project financing deals slated for March will be a swing factor. He also pointed out that “safe harboring” spending—essentially, pre-purchasing equipment to secure tax-credit eligibility—could come in between $50 million and $100 million. 4
Mixed signals in the operating metrics this quarter. Subscriber additions dropped 17% from a year earlier to 25,475, but the storage attachment rate climbed to 71%. By the close of 2025, total subscribers stood at 997,280. 5
Jefferies cut its rating on Sunrun to Hold from Buy, according to Barron’s, citing a “defensive” posture by the company as it approaches 2026. Management’s recent comments also signaled expectations for a more prolonged downturn in the residential solar sector. 6
The selloff isn’t one-sided. Should affiliate reductions overshoot plans, or if March financings fall through and weigh on first-quarter liquidity, Sunrun’s 2026 outlook could get squeezed fast.
