LONDON, March 26, 2026, 20:01 GMT
Tesco Plc shares closed down 1.6% at 455.1 pence on Thursday as a British Retail Consortium survey showed household sentiment sliding to its lowest since March 2024, prompting chief executive Helen Dickinson to say “consumer confidence collapsed.” 1
The timing matters. Tesco is due to post preliminary 2025/26 results on April 16, and analyst consensus published by the company points to adjusted operating profit — Tesco’s preferred measure of underlying earnings — of 3.096 billion pounds. 2
That leaves the market parsing every demand signal. The Confederation of British Industry said retail sales volumes this month suffered the sharpest annual fall since April 2020, and lead economist Martin Sartorius said weak economic conditions were still weighing on household spending. 3
Pressure is building inside food retail too. Morrisons said on Wednesday that the market remained “highly competitive” and warned it was watching the effect of the Middle East conflict on consumer confidence and supply chains. 4
Other UK retailers struck the same note on Thursday. Co-op warned geopolitical instability was hitting consumer confidence, while Next said the conflict had already added 15 million pounds of fuel and freight costs; chief executive Simon Wolfson said any June or July price rise would be “in the order of 1% to 2% maximum.” 5
Tesco goes into that backdrop with stronger recent trading than many peers. In January it said Christmas sales lifted full-year profit guidance to the upper end of its 2.9 billion-to-3.1 billion-pound range, while chief executive Ken Murphy said competition was “as intense as ever.” 6
The company has also kept taking share. Worldpanel data published this month showed Tesco’s sales rose 4.5% in the 12 weeks to Feb. 22 and its grocery market share grew to 28.7%, ahead of Sainsbury’s 16.1%. 7
But Tesco is not insulated. The group agreed last week to lift hourly pay for store and fulfilment staff to 13.28 pounds from March 29, just as retailers across Europe warned that higher energy and freight bills could feed through into shelf prices if the Middle East conflict drags on. 8
There are still buffers. As a food retailer, Tesco sells essentials, and the company says its buyback programme will take cumulative repurchases since 2021 to 4.25 billion pounds by April 2026. Even so, with the shares at 455.1 pence against a 52-week high of 508.2 pence, they sit about 10.4% below the peak heading into April’s results. 9
