LONDON, March 2, 2026, 08:56 GMT — Regular session
- Tesco slipped at the start of London trading, absent any new regulatory disclosures.
- Oil prices spiked, and a wave of selling hit European markets, thrusting inflation risk back into the spotlight.
- Eyes are on Bank of England figures, the UK Spring Forecast coming March 3, plus Tesco’s numbers due April 16.
Tesco dropped 0.6% to 477.6 pence at the open in London, putting the supermarket group’s market cap at roughly 30.35 billion pounds. No fresh RNS statement from the company on the exchange feed. 1
This shift lands at a time when investors are wrestling with how pricier energy feeds into inflation—and how that shapes the outlook for UK rate cuts. Fuel and transport expenses remain a constant concern for a major food retailer, even if shelf prices don’t budge right away.
Risk aversion dominated. By 0812 GMT, European shares had dropped 1.8%, hitting their lowest levels since the middle of February. Energy and defence stocks managed gains, but most sectors fell. 2
Oil jumped after supply concerns hit the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged 9.5% to $79.78 a barrel as of 0748 GMT, with traders bracing for broader disruptions to Gulf exports. Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva called it “a geopolitical shock, not a systemic crisis” — at least for now. 3
On Monday, Tesco shares bounced between 475.30 and 483.80 pence, according to Investing.com, staying well off the 52-week peak of 508.00 pence. Over the past year, Tesco’s stock has swung from as low as 310.30 up to that 508.00 mark. 4
There hasn’t been much in the way of fresh company updates, so investors are still working off Tesco’s latest outlook. Back in January, the grocer guided for full-year adjusted operating profit to hit the top end of its 2.9 billion to 3.1 billion pounds range, thanks to a bump in UK sales and market share after the holiday season. Chief executive Ken Murphy, though, flagged that “competition is as intense as ever”. 5
Tesco has ramped up its online and convenience push, outpacing most of its competitors. Back in February, Reuters noted that Whoosh, Tesco’s rapid-delivery service, now operates out of roughly 1,600 stores, covering over 70% of UK households. “We can grow the service quickly using our existing stores,” online director Rob Graham told Reuters. Key rivals—Sainsbury’s, Asda, and Ocado—are all running their own fast-delivery efforts, too. 6
UK macro news on Monday didn’t move in one direction. Nationwide Building Society reported a 1.0% year-on-year gain in house prices for February, and a 0.3% monthly uptick, hinting at a mild rebound after what it called a late-2025 dip linked to budget jitters. Paul Dales at Capital Economics flagged the risk that “an inflationary shock from the events in the Middle East” could “put the handbrake on housing.” Later Monday, Bank of England lending figures are set for release — forecasts point to a small increase in mortgage approvals, often watched as an early read on homebuying appetite. 7
Tesco’s risk comes down to oil. Persistent high prices could mean higher costs and another hit to customers’ wallets. UK grocery inflation slid to 4.0% in late January, according to Worldpanel by Numerator, which noted that “value remained front of mind” for shoppers. Tesco and Sainsbury’s both picked up market share during that stretch. 8
Traders are eyeing Tuesday for a key UK trigger. According to Reuters, the government’s Spring Forecast and budget update are on the docket for March 3—potentially shifting the outlook for taxes, public spending, and interest rate projections. 9
For Tesco, the calendar circles April 16—final results land then. Profit guidance is under scrutiny, as is any commentary from management on costs and competitive pressures if the oil shock persists. 10
