New York, Feb 17, 2026, 05:10 EST — Premarket
- Tesla shares hovered near flat in premarket trading, following a three-day U.S. market break.
- This week, traders have their eyes on the Fed minutes and new U.S. data, both seen as potential signals for the next move on rates.
- Tesla’s capex outlook and the pace of its self-driving rollout still drive the biggest uncertainty.
Tesla stock was little changed early Tuesday, stuck near $417 in premarket action as Wall Street came back online after the Presidents Day break. Investors are bracing for a busy stretch for growth names tied to rates. Tesla last closed at $417.44 on Friday. 1
Why it matters now: With markets closed Monday, rate speculation just kept moving. Traders returned to find inflation and policy still in the driver’s seat, and Tesla acting more like a volatile tech stock than an automaker for most of the past year. 2
Investors are eyeing the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the Jan. 27-28 meeting, set for release Wednesday, to gauge any changes in how officials view persistent inflation and to hunt for signals about when the next policy move might come. 3
Tesla heads into the week following some rough back-and-forth in the big tech names. “Any whiff of optimism continues to get rejected,” said Michael James, managing director at Rosenblatt Securities. He flagged persistent nerves over the speed of AI disruption threatening profits—and the sheer spend required to stay in the race. 4
The company has doubled down on the tech story. Late last month, Tesla announced a $2 billion investment in xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence venture, and signaled a jump in capital expenditures for this year—moves that have kept the focus squarely on robotics and self-driving rather than immediate vehicle sales. “The most important leading indicator” from here is rollout progress, according to Thomas Monteiro, senior analyst at Investing.com. 5
During the earnings call, executives laid out plans for hefty capital spending focused on the Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robots, plus the manufacturing to support them. Musk, for his part, announced Tesla would stop making the Model S and Model X, freeing up space in its factories for robot production. “The bigger story is the business model transition now underway,” said Scott Acheychek, chief operating officer at REX Financial. 6
Tesla wants the story to be bigger than just vehicles. The company’s execs have shared updates about new hiring, all pointing back to Elon Musk’s plan: 100 gigawatts of U.S. solar manufacturing by 2028. “This is an audacious, ambitious project,” said Seth Winger, senior manager for solar products engineering. 7
Tesla is weaving more software tie-ins into its cars in China, aiming to keep drivers within local digital platforms. Tencent Cloud announced it’s working with Tesla to bring WeChat-connected features—think destination-based suggestions and location sharing—into vehicles via over-the-air updates. 8
But demand concerns haven’t vanished. Reuters data puts China-made Model 3 and Model Y deliveries, exports included, up 9.3% year over year in January. Musk, for his part, has floated that both Europe and China might sign off on Tesla’s driver-supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) system as soon as this month. The company’s FSD still needs a person watching over it. 9
Here’s what could trip things up: If the Fed minutes come across as more hawkish, yields might jump and growth stocks—especially the pricey ones—could take a hit. And if regulators drag their feet on approvals, or EV demand comes in softer, attention could swing right back to Tesla’s main car operations, right as spending is picking up.
Next up for investors: the Fed minutes Wednesday. Then comes Nvidia’s earnings on Feb. 25, a report that’s turned into a key sentiment driver for the broader “AI trade”—Tesla included. 10
