LONDON, Feb 27, 2026, 09:56 GMT
- Alexander Hall is predicting an uptick in both purchase and remortgage approvals for the first half.
- Remortgaging is expected to pick up pace with a wave of fixed-rate deals coming to an end.
- The rate outlook is still what swings both borrowing costs and demand.
Alexander Hall, a UK mortgage broker, sees mortgage approvals for both home purchases and refinancing ticking up through the first half of 2026, driven by sharper pricing and more options on the table. The firm expects average monthly house-purchase approvals to hit 62,286 in the first quarter, then push higher to 64,196 in the second. Remortgage approvals, meanwhile, are forecast at 41,547 for the first quarter, jumping to 48,257 in the second. “We expect this positive momentum to continue through the first half of the year,” said managing director Richard Merrett. 1
Timing is critical here, with the refinancing surge far from over. According to UK Finance, 1.8 million fixed-rate mortgages are set to expire—a hefty pipeline likely to send borrowers scrambling for new deals ahead of landing on pricier lender rates. 2
Interest rates remain front and center. The Bank of England left its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in February, after trimming it to that level in December. With the benchmark rate holding steady, lenders and borrowers are left watching closely for any signs of another move. 3
Signs from the housing market aren’t quite as bleak. Zoopla logged a 6% increase in homes listed for sale in the four weeks to Feb. 15 compared with the same stretch last year. Notably, 40% of homes on the market were actually less expensive to buy with a mortgage—assuming a 20% deposit—than to rent in that area. “More sellers putting their home on the market shows a strong desire to move,” said Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla. 4
Alexander Hall’s analysis of Bank of England approvals data highlights the trend behind its forecast: average monthly house-purchase approvals jumped from 48,088 in 2023 to 62,876 in 2024, then 64,164 projected in 2025. For remortgaging, approvals averaged 29,658 in 2023, climbing to 30,492 in 2024 and reaching 36,747 in 2025, the firm found. 5
This week, PrimeResi noted Alexander Hall’s upbeat outlook on housing, with the firm anticipating the market’s “positive momentum” to carry on into the first half of the year. 6
Alexander Hall runs as part of Foxtons Group, which characterizes Alexander Hall as an independent mortgage broker and provider of additional financial services under its own brand. 7
The main question mark still hangs over the future path of rates. January’s Citi/YouGov survey pointed to lower public inflation expectations, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey left the door open to a March rate cut, saying it’s “possible” but reiterating that firmer inflation data is needed. That uncertainty keeps mortgage pricing sensitive—markets can shift gears fast if the outlook changes. 8
Mortgage approvals, essentially advance agreements by lenders, are tracked closely. They typically precede finalized deals and give an early sense of whether easing prices are sparking fresh buyer demand, or just shifting the mix toward more refinancing.
