New York, March 2, 2026, 16:13 (EST) — After-hours
- Walmart shares fell about 0.6% in Monday’s regular session, holding up better than consumer staples overall
- A jump in a key U.S. cost gauge and a spike in oil put inflation — and rates — back in focus
- Traders are lining up for March 3 retailer updates and March 6 U.S. jobs and retail-sales data
Walmart (WMT) shares slipped on Monday as markets digested a sharp move higher in oil prices and fresh signs that inflation pressures may be building again. The stock was last down about 0.6% at $127.24, while SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, edged up and the consumer-staples ETF fell more than 1%.
The move matters because Walmart has been treated as a steady name in an unsettled tape, one that tends to draw money when investors get nervous about growth. A renewed inflation scare can cut both ways: it can push shoppers toward low prices, but it can also keep borrowing costs high and pressure valuations.
A survey-based read on U.S. factories pointed to that tension. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI held at 52.4 in February, but its “prices paid” index — a gauge of input-cost inflation — jumped to 70.5, the highest since June 2022, Reuters reported. Oil prices rose as much as 13% on Monday after strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran and retaliation by Tehran, adding to worries about cost pass-through and the Federal Reserve’s rate path; Capital Economics economist Thomas Ryan said the prices gauge “will raise some eyebrows at the Fed.” 1
For Walmart, higher fuel costs can show up quickly in freight and delivery, even if the company can lean on scale and supplier terms. Tariffs and higher metals prices can also ripple through categories like home goods and electronics, where consumers are typically more price-sensitive.
The bigger investor backdrop is still a market trying to sort out what holds up if tech swings again. “There continues to be this … back and forth” over who AI will disrupt and who will win, Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, told Reuters in a week-ahead note that flagged Friday’s February jobs report, expected to show 60,000 jobs added, and a January retail sales report also due March 6. 2
Retail headlines hit quickly from here. Target said it plans to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results the morning of March 3 and will webcast a meeting with investors at 11:30 a.m. Eastern time, offering a fresh read on promotions and demand that investors often use as a cross-check on Walmart’s momentum. 3
Best Buy has also scheduled its quarterly earnings call for March 3 at 8:00 a.m. ET, another checkpoint for how discretionary spending is holding up. 4
But the near-term script can change fast. If oil stays elevated and input prices keep climbing, retailers may face a harsher mix of cost pressure and cautious shoppers, especially outside of groceries and essentials. A tougher-rate outlook would add another headwind for the sector’s higher-multiple names.
The next catalysts are close: Target’s March 3 investor update, then the March 6 U.S. jobs report and retail sales data, which will shape expectations for rates — and for how much pricing power big-box retailers really have going into spring.
