A global AI-driven memory chip shortage is pushing up DRAM, DDR5, and SSD prices in 2026. Samsung warns of price hikes, while analysts forecast sharp cost increases for consumer electronics.
Updated: January 10, 2026
The biggest tech story of CES 2026 isn’t a new screen, a flashier AI assistant, or another “AI PC” badge—it’s the invisible component that makes all of those products work: memory.
A widening global shortage of DRAM and NAND flash—two foundational building blocks for everything from smartphones and laptops to TVs and home appliances—is now spilling over from the AI server boom into everyday consumer electronics. Samsung executives are openly warning that price hikes may be unavoidable, while market trackers forecast one of the steepest memory price surges in years. 1
What’s new today: the Jan 10, 2026 snapshot
Here are the key developments shaping the story right now:
- Samsung: “No company is immune.” In recent comments to Reuters, Samsung co-CEO T M Roh described the memory crunch as “unprecedented” and said price impacts are “inevitable,” without ruling out raising prices across devices. 1
- TrendForce: a major Q1 spike is forecast. Conventional DRAM contract prices are projected to rise 55–60% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, with NAND flash up 33–38%, and client SSD pricing expected to jump 40%+. 2
- Financial Times: phones and PCs are next. The FT reports that memory supply is being diverted toward AI data centers—especially high-bandwidth memory (HBM)—raising the odds of broad price increases for smartphones and PCs in 2026. 3
- WIRED: the PC memory crisis is already visible. Dell’s COO says it’s the worst shortage he’s seen, with spot prices reportedly up sharply since September and contract prices following. 4
- Investors are treating memory like an “AI supercycle.” A Barron’s analysis argues the traditional “boom-bust” memory cycle may be changing as demand is pulled by AI data centers rather than consumer upgrades. 5
Together, these signals point to a clear reality: memory has become the choke point of the AI era—and the consumer market is now paying the bill.
Why AI is breaking the “normal” memory cycle
Memory markets have always been cyclical. When demand rises, chipmakers ramp production; when supply catches up, prices fall. But multiple analysts and industry reports now argue this cycle is different because AI is changing what kind of memory gets built—and who gets first claim on it. 3
HBM is the new priority
High-bandwidth memory (HBM) is used in AI accelerators and advanced servers. It’s not the same as the DRAM inside your laptop—but it competes for manufacturing capacity, engineering attention, and advanced production lines.
The Economist’s reporting underscores how dramatic this shift could become, noting that HBM’s role in the industry is expanding rapidly compared with just a few years ago. 6
Cloud giants are locking up supply
TrendForce says the DRAM supply-demand gap is widening as U.S.-based cloud service providers (CSPs) lock in capacity, forcing other buyers to accept higher prices. In plain language: hyperscalers building AI infrastructure are booking memory volume early, and everyone else is fighting over what’s left. 2
This matches earlier reporting that the AI build-out has created a new kind of global supply crisis, with major memory producers and buyers already signaling tight availability well into 2026. 7
The numbers that matter: how big could the price shock be?
The most concrete near-term view comes from TrendForce’s Q1 2026 forecast—important because it captures what OEMs pay under contract (the prices that ripple into device pricing and configurations).
TrendForce projects for Q1 2026:
- Conventional DRAM:+55–60% QoQ 2
- NAND flash:+33–38% QoQ 2
- Server DRAM:+60%+ QoQ 2
- Client SSDs:+40%+ QoQ (TrendForce calls it the largest rise among NAND categories) 2
TrendForce also notes a crucial point for consumer devices: even with weaker notebook shipments and the possibility of spec downgrades to reduce bill-of-materials (BOM) costs, PC DRAM prices are still set to rise sharply because supply is being tightened and OEMs may be forced to buy modules at higher prices. 2
And in the background, Counterpoint has also pointed to strong price momentum continuing into 2026 (including additional increases expected into Q2), reinforcing that this is not a one-quarter blip. 8
Samsung’s warning: price hikes may hit phones, TVs, and appliances
Samsung is uniquely exposed to this story because it sits on both sides of the market: it’s a top-tier consumer electronics brand and one of the world’s biggest memory suppliers.
In a Reuters interview, Samsung co-CEO T M Roh described the situation as “unprecedented” and said “no company is immune,” adding that the crunch affects not just phones but consumer electronics “from TVs to home appliances.” He also said some price impact was “inevitable,” and did not rule out raising product prices. 1
At the same time, Samsung is accelerating the rollout of on-device AI—planning to double the number of mobile devices with “Galaxy AI” features to 800 million units in 2026—which, ironically, can increase pressure on the same supply chain if devices ship with more memory and storage to support AI features. 1
Separately, Samsung executive Wonjin Lee has also been quoted (via Bloomberg coverage referenced in multiple outlets) emphasizing that memory-related costs are rising and could force repricing discussions across products. 9
Phones and PCs: why the next upgrade may cost more (or include less)
The FT’s reporting is blunt: the AI data center boom is draining memory supply and could drive price increases for consumer devices, especially smartphones and PCs, in 2026. 3
Smartphones: shrinking volumes, higher prices
According to Reuters reporting on IDC’s outlook, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 0.9% in 2026 as memory costs push average selling prices to new highs. IDC also expects average selling prices to rise to $465, lifting total market value even as units fall. 10
IDC’s broader analysis frames this as more than a typical shortage: major memory makers are shifting production toward data-center-oriented memory (HBM and high-capacity DDR5), restricting supply for consumer devices and pushing prices up across the board. 11
The practical implication is twofold:
- Budget devices get squeezed first. Low-to-mid range phones have less margin to absorb component inflation. 10
- Specs may go backwards. TrendForce warns brands may respond by increasing prices and reducing specifications, with shipment forecasts at risk. 12
PCs: the shortage is already visible in the market
WIRED’s reporting from CES highlights how sharply this is hitting the PC ecosystem right now:
- Dell COO Jeff Clarke called it “the worst shortage I’ve ever seen,” attributing it to AI infrastructure demand. 4
- Clarke also pointed to spot market prices rising sharply since September and warned it would show up in contract pricing. 4
- WIRED cites analysis that DRAM prices rose about 40% in Q4 2025 and could be up to 60% higher in Q1 2026. 4
- The article references a leaked internal Dell document suggesting prices could rise as much as 30% in 2026. 4
This is why “AI PCs” are facing a strange tension in 2026: marketing is demanding more local compute, but supply economics are pushing manufacturers toward lower memory configurations to keep price points from exploding. 4
How the industry is trying to “solve” the PC memory crisis
Even as chipmakers prioritize high-margin server and HBM demand, some companies are pitching workarounds designed to reduce how much DRAM a laptop needs without sacrificing perceived capability.
WIRED spotlights two approaches showcased around CES:
1) Use NAND like “extra memory” (Phison’s aiDAPTIV)
Phison’s aiDAPTIV is described as an add-in SSD cache for laptops meant to “expand” the memory bandwidth available for AI workloads by leaning on flash storage with specialized design and correction algorithms.
Crucially, Phison argues OEMs could ship laptops with 16GB instead of 32GB of DRAM without the same performance hit in certain AI tasks—effectively a way to stretch scarce DRAM across more units. WIRED says the design slots into PCIe without major internal changes and notes early support from MSI and Intel. 4
2) Free motherboard space for more memory (Ventiva’s solid-state cooling)
Ventiva’s pitch is less about memory technology and more about physical design. By replacing fans with a solid-state cooling approach, Ventiva claims it can free internal space that could be used for more memory. The company’s CEO frames laptop memory limits as a balance of capacity, bandwidth, and the physical “topology” of where memory sits relative to the CPU. 4
Whether either approach scales quickly enough to matter is uncertain—but the fact they’re being positioned as memory-crisis solutions shows how urgent the situation has become.
The “supercycle” narrative: why investors think memory is different this time
When a commodity input becomes scarce, two things happen: prices rise—and Wall Street rethinks the market structure.
A Reuters report this month notes memory chipmakers’ shares climbed on expectations of further price gains, and analysts have described the current upcycle as a “supercycle” that could run through 2027. 13
Barron’s goes further, arguing the classic “memory is always cyclical and ugly” thesis may no longer fully apply if AI data centers provide a sustained demand floor for high-end memory such as HBM, DDR5, and NAND. It still warns the market can turn, but frames the present moment as structurally different from past consumer-led cycles. 5
What to expect next: the most likely outcomes for 2026
Based on the latest reporting and forecasts, three scenarios look most plausible as 2026 unfolds:
1) Higher prices—especially for entry-level devices
Samsung has openly signaled that price impact is likely, and TrendForce’s contract forecasts suggest OEMs will face meaningfully higher component costs in the near term. 14
2) Configuration downgrades and “hidden inflation”
Even when sticker prices don’t move, brands can preserve margins by quietly shipping:
- less RAM,
- smaller SSDs,
- older memory standards in budget models,
- or fewer “base” variants at low prices.
TrendForce and IDC both point to this kind of adjustment pressure. 2
3) A longer shortage timeline than consumers expect
Earlier reporting indicated some suppliers had already effectively sold out large portions of 2026 capacity, and new conventional capacity additions can take years. That means relief may depend not just on factories, but on whether the AI build-out slows—or whether new efficiency approaches reduce demand per system. 7
Bottom line
As of January 10, 2026, the evidence across market forecasts, executive comments, and supply-chain reporting points in the same direction: the AI boom has turned memory into a scarce strategic resource, and the knock-on effects are now reaching everyday devices.
If 2024 and 2025 were defined by the race for GPUs, 2026 is shaping up as the year of RAM and SSD shock—with Samsung’s warnings, TrendForce’s Q1 projections, and PC makers’ contingency planning all pointing to a consumer electronics market where more AI may come with higher prices, smaller configs, or both. 2
