SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 19, 2026, 07:31 (PST)
- Apple and Samsung closed out 2025 neck and neck in global smartphone shipments, though some trackers place Apple just slightly ahead.
- Demand surged during the holiday quarter, boosting volumes despite ongoing parts shortages and rising component costs squeezing supply.
- Analysts predict 2026 will be rougher, with memory shortages and price drops hitting low- and mid-tier phones hardest.
Apple (AAPL.O) closed 2025 as the leading smartphone vendor globally by shipments, narrowly surpassing Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) amid modest market growth, according to early data from IDC. Apple shipped 247.8 million units, grabbing a 19.7% market share, while Samsung followed with 241.2 million phones and 19.1%. Overall shipments for 2025 grew 1.9%, reaching roughly 1.26 billion devices. “Apple maintained its leadership for the third consecutive year,” said IDC’s Nabila Popal. 1
Why it matters now: the supply crunch for key components is tightening, with memory—especially DRAM, the working memory inside phones—drawing renewed attention. U.S. chipmaker Micron announced it will shell out $1.8 billion to acquire a Taiwan fabrication plant from Powerchip. The move aims to ramp up DRAM wafer production starting in the second half of 2027, highlighting just how strained the market has become. 2
Omdia reported that Apple topped the market in Q4 with a 25% share, edging out Samsung slightly for the full year 2025 despite rising memory costs. “Apple hit its highest-ever fourth-quarter shipment volumes in 4Q25,” said Omdia analyst Sanyam Chaurasia. Runar Bjørhovde from Omdia pointed to DRAM supply shortages as a major supply-side pressure heading into 2026. 3
Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple will lead in 2025 with a 20% market share, narrowly ahead of Samsung’s 19%. The firm noted vendors accelerated shipments early this year to dodge upcoming tariffs. Counterpoint analyst Tarun Pathak warned the market might weaken in 2026 as chip shortages and rising component costs force suppliers to focus more on AI data centers than smartphones. 4
Monday saw those figures resurface in industry reports, with WebProNews pointing out Apple’s slim lead over Samsung following a year of fierce rivalry at the summit. 5
“Shipments” track phones sent to retailers, not actual sales to customers. This can inflate the appearance of demand if manufacturers stockpile inventory before launches or price changes.
The gap remains narrow, with rankings prone to change as companies update forecasts and vendors tweak channel inventories following the holiday surge. Should parts shortages worsen, or if rising bills of materials push prices up, lower-priced models will take the hardest hit, since buyers there are more sensitive to even slight price hikes.
Samsung’s surge in late 2025 hinged on foldables and budget-friendly AI-powered phones, IDC reported. Apple benefited from strong iPhone 17 sales and a bounce back in China. Trailing behind, Chinese brands Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO secured spots in the global top five.
The battle in 2026 is shaping up to be less about launching new products and more about managing supply and pricing. Vendors are increasingly open about trade-ins, bundled services, and configuration adjustments—small moves, but often the only options left when memory and other parts run scarce.
