New York, Feb 16, 2026, 16:02 (ET) — The session has ended.
Dow futures edged up Monday, drifting higher in light holiday trading. U.S. stock markets are closed for Presidents Day, with regular sessions picking up again Tuesday. Futures give a read on possible index moves when the market reopens. 1
So, investors head into a packed lineup of data releases with markets still jittery about the direction of profits in a cycle dominated by AI plays. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid is calling for U.S. real GDP growth to ease back to 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Over at Janus Henderson, Oliver Blackbourn says he’s favored U.S. small caps as fiscal stimulus continues to work its way through. 2
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 48.95 points at 49,500.93. Reuters data also showed the S&P 500 wrapped up at 6,836.17, with the Nasdaq Composite landing at 22,546.67. The U.S. 10-year yield hovered near 4.05%, and Brent crude traded at roughly $68.66 a barrel. 3
The holiday lull is tricky. Index futures sometimes show tidy moves that vanish quickly once big money comes back and liquidity returns.
Not much of a runway for investors this week. The Fed’s January minutes land, plus fourth-quarter GDP figures and the PCE price index — which happens to be the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Housing and trade numbers are also due. Earnings: Walmart steps up Thursday, with Deere, Analog Devices, and Palo Alto Networks also on tap. 4
Walmart stands out as the clearest consumer read in a choppy market. Traders are watching for hints that customers might be trading down, paying close attention to what management says about costs, inventories, and pricing leverage.
Energy remains volatile heading into Tuesday. Oil picked up roughly 1% on Monday, with traders eyeing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations set for Geneva and OPEC+’s March 1 decision on possible April output hikes. Brent finished the day at $68.65 a barrel, according to Reuters. 5
The risk: pretty clear. Any inflation data that runs hot, or FOMC minutes that look less dovish on cuts, could shake up yields and slam stocks—fast. That’s especially true now, after weeks of sharp rotations and a market still uneasy about big tech’s staying power. Plus, with the holiday thinning out participation, the initial reaction often gets amplified.
The Dow faces its next hurdle when trading opens Tuesday, as investors brace for the week’s main catalysts. Eyes will be on the Fed minutes and Friday’s PCE inflation data—those are the two events with the most potential to shift sentiment.
