New York, Feb 26, 2026, 14:05 EST — Regular session
- Gasoline futures in the U.S. edged higher, with prices at the pump climbing as traders watched the latest U.S.-Iran negotiations and reacted to new inventory figures.
- Gasoline inventories dropped last week, government data revealed, while crude stockpiles saw a sharp increase.
- Traders are watching for developments from this weekend’s OPEC+ supply talks, with attention also turning to the upcoming U.S. fuel report due next week.
Gasoline futures in the U.S. pushed higher on Thursday, following crude’s bounce and as new data hinted at shrinking fuel inventories just before the annual move to summer-grade blends. 1
Why it matters now: Retail gasoline prices don’t move immediately—they usually trail wholesale shifts. With refineries changing over blends and spring travel picking up, drivers are feeling it. AAA reported the national average for regular gas climbed by just over 5 cents this week, now sitting at $2.983 a gallon. 2
Supply signals are sending conflicting messages. U.S. commercial crude stockpiles jumped by 16.0 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly report. But total motor gasoline inventories dropped by 1.0 million barrels over the same period.
Oil prices whipped back and forth as traders kept a close watch on U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, which remain a big wild card for crude and products supply. “Media reports coming out seem to show that things are not going so great in Geneva,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. Over at Price Futures Group, Phil Flynn weighed in, saying any sanctions relief would slam prices: “very bearish for prices.” 3
Oil barely budged Wednesday, even after a hefty crude inventory build. Analysts flagged geopolitics as the real driver. “The oil market remains more influenced by other factors at present, such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,” UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. 4
Gasoline traders tracked refinery activity and signs of demand. Refinery utilization fell to 88.6%. Gasoline output averaged 9.2 million barrels per day. The EIA said the four-week average for gasoline supplied, a demand stand-in, came in at 8.5 million bpd.
AAA pointed out the seasonal pinch—refineries have begun producing summer-blend gasoline, which comes with higher-priced ingredients. Demand also tends to climb as spring break trips get underway. 2
Still, risks are lurking nearby. U.S.-Iran negotiations moving forward could take the steam out of crude, pulling gasoline down too. If OPEC+ opts to boost supply this weekend, that’s another hurdle—particularly as U.S. crude inventories are climbing rapidly. 4
Looking ahead, traders have their eyes on updates from Geneva when talks restart Thursday. The OPEC+ gathering is set for March 1, with the latest EIA weekly petroleum numbers expected March 4. 3
