Sydney, March 2, 2026, 17:00 AEDT — After-hours
- Santos shares ended higher as crude prices spiked on Middle East supply fears.
- Traders are now fixated on oil’s next move and any disruption to key shipping routes.
Santos Ltd (ASX:STO) shares ended up 6.7% at A$7.21 on Monday, outperforming the broader market as crude prices jumped after weekend strikes on Iran stoked fears of supply disruption. Woodside Energy added 6.8%, and about 33.7 million Santos shares changed hands. 1
The move matters because it puts a price on a single question: can oil keep flowing. Iran said it had closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption, and traders quickly rebuilt a “risk premium” — extra cost baked into crude to cover shock scenarios. 2
For Santos, that premium tends to hit valuation models before the company says a word. When the oil tape moves in big steps, Australian producers get repriced in real time, and the company’s own calendar can get pushed to the background.
Santos traded between A$7.055 and A$7.370 during the session and was last quoted at A$7.210, versus a previous close of A$6.760, Investing.com data showed. 3
“The key factor here is closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar at ICIS, warning that a prolonged shutdown could drive a fast move higher in oil. 4
Strategists were split on how long the oil spike lasts. Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said prices could “spike above $100” if flows through Hormuz are disrupted for long, while Societe Generale said the surge could be short-lived if the conflict does not choke supply. 5
In Australia, the energy bid showed up early. ABC News said Brent was up about 6.3% around 4:15pm AEDT and noted oil and gas producers rallied broadly, with Brazil-focused Karoon Energy leading gains. Betashares chief economist David Bassanese told ABC, “It remains to be seen how long this conflict will continue.” 6
Santos investors have a couple of nearer-term markers on the company calendar. MarketIndex data shows the stock went ex-dividend on Feb. 23 — meaning buyers after that date miss the payout — and is due to pay a final dividend of A$0.1457 per share on March 25; its “forecasted” calendar lists a quarterly report on April 16. 7
But the downside case is straightforward. If the Strait stays open and the fighting cools, the risk premium can evaporate, pulling oil — and the momentum trade in energy stocks — back down with it.
Next up is whether crude holds its gains as Europe and the U.S. reopen, and whether shipping updates out of the Gulf show any easing. For Santos shareholders, the March 25 dividend payment and the mid-April quarterly update are the next hard dates on the tape.
