London, March 2, 2026, 08:34 (GMT) — Regular session
- BP shares rise as crude hits multi-month highs on Middle East supply fears
- Brent jumps as much as 13% after disruption around the Strait of Hormuz
- JPMorgan keeps Neutral on BP, lifts target price to 520p
BP Plc shares (BP.L) were up 5.5% at 503.9 pence in early London trade on Monday, tracking a sharp move higher in crude prices. The stock traded between 496.7 and 507.1 pence. 1
Brent crude futures rose as much as 13% and were up 9.5% at $79.78 a barrel by 0748 GMT after a weekend of strikes and retaliation disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “Markets are acknowledging the seriousness of the conflict, but are also signalling that, for now, this is a geopolitical shock, not a systemic crisis,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior analyst at Phillip Nova. 2
Traders are treating Hormuz as the pressure point. More than 20% of global oil moves through the narrow waterway, and tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait, trade sources said. “The key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS. 3
The bid for oil-linked names came as European equities slid. The STOXX 600 was down 1.8% by 0812 GMT, while the energy sector was 3.5% higher, with Shell and TotalEnergies also firmer. 4
Analysts are now modelling how long the disruption lasts and how much oil stays off the water. Citi sees Brent trading between $80 and $90 a barrel over at least the coming week in its base case, and expects a pullback toward $70 a barrel on de-escalation. Goldman Sachs estimated an $18-a-barrel “risk premium” — the extra price traders build in for supply risk. 5
On BP specifically, JPMorgan kept a Neutral rating and raised its target price to 520 pence from 500, analyst Matthew Lofting wrote. 6
But energy shares can give back gains fast if diplomacy takes the edge off the conflict. A quicker-than-feared resumption of tanker flows would likely pull crude lower and dent the trade that has lifted BP and its peers.
BP has been trying to steady its equity story after it paused $750 million in quarterly share buybacks to cut debt and took about $4 billion of charges on renewables and biogas assets. The company has said Meg O’Neill will take over as CEO in April. 7
For now, traders are watching tanker traffic and insurance around Hormuz, and whether OPEC+ — the OPEC group plus allies such as Russia — does more than its planned April output increase. Next up for BP holders: the dividend payment due on March 27 and first-quarter earnings scheduled for April 28. 8
