London, March 2, 2026, 09:07 GMT — Regular session.
Unilever (ULVR.L) shares edged down 0.7% to 5,429 pence in early London trade on Monday, tracking a broader risk-off move after crude jumped on fresh Middle East fighting. The Dove soap maker was down 38 pence from Friday’s close after touching 5,408 pence. 1
The selloff came as European stocks fell across the board, with investors shifting into energy and defence names and dumping travel stocks. The STOXX 600 slid 1.8% by 0812 GMT, while Shell, BP and TotalEnergies gained more than 5% as oil surged. 2
Brent crude futures were last up 9.5% at $79.78 a barrel at 0748 GMT, after rising as much as 13% earlier in the session, amid disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude added 8.8% to $72.90. 3
Oil traders and analysts have been warning the key swing factor is whether flows through the strait keep thinning out. “The key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS, who expects prices to open much closer to $100 a barrel if the outage drags on. 4
That is the part equity investors cannot model neatly: an energy shock that risks reviving inflation just as growth has looked uneven. “Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil,” said Jorge Leon at Rystad Energy, while OPEC+ agreed a modest output increase from April. 5
For consumer goods groups, higher fuel and freight costs can feed through to packaging and distribution bills, while pricier energy can squeeze household budgets. Unilever is often treated as a defensive stock in shaky markets, but that label comes under strain when the inflation story changes.
Unilever flagged in February that 2026 underlying sales growth — a measure that strips out currency swings and acquisitions — would likely land at the bottom end of its 4% to 6% guidance range after a slowdown in the United States and Europe. It also set out a 1.5 billion euro share buyback, which repurchases stock to shrink the share count, and RBC Capital Markets analyst James Edwardes Jones wrote there were “signs of progress” but it would “take time.” 6
Income-focused holders have also had the dividend calendar in view. Unilever’s ordinary shares went ex-dividend on Feb. 26 — meaning new buyers no longer qualify for the next payout — with the Q4 2025 dividend due for payment on April 10, according to the company’s dividend timetable. 7
Still, the big near-term risk is outside the company. If fighting cools and tankers return, oil’s risk premium could unwind fast and defensives may recover with the broader market; if disruption persists, higher costs and weaker volumes could bite at the same time.
Traders will keep watching tanker traffic and insurance costs around Hormuz, with crude the main screen. For Unilever, the next scheduled catalyst is its Q1 2026 trading statement on April 30. 8
