Paris, March 2, 2026, 12:19 CET — Regular session
- TotalEnergies stock climbed in Paris, tracking a surge in oil prices fueled by concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.
- JPMorgan bumps its rating up to “overweight” while investors adjust to shifting oil-risk exposure.
- Focus is on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with traders also eyeing the ECB’s forecast update later this month.
TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) climbed roughly 3.1% to finish at 69.36 euros in Paris, a session that saw it peak at 73.00 amid a surge in oil prices sparked by concerns over possible Middle East supply disruptions. Shares started the day at 72.5 euros, compared with Friday’s close at 67.28, and ranged from 68.98 to 73.00. The company is scheduled to release earnings on April 29. 1
French oil giant TotalEnergies stood out as one of the few names in positive territory during a bruising start to the session for European stocks. The STOXX 600 dropped 1.5% after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and a wave of Iranian missiles over the weekend sent investors fleeing from riskier bets; banks and travel names bore the brunt of the selloff. Energy shares bucked the trend, climbing 2.2% to fresh records, with TotalEnergies, Shell and BP all advancing between 2% and 4%. Generali Investments’ Paolo Zanghieri flagged that the attacks were “explicitly aimed at regime change” and warned they may drag on “much longer than the limited action seen in 2025.” 2
The Strait of Hormuz—wedged between Oman and Iran—remains the critical chokepoint for about one-fifth of the world’s oil exports plus heavy liquefied natural gas flows. More than 200 ships, including tankers for oil and gas, sat anchored in the area, shipping data showed. Brent surged almost 8% to roughly $78 per barrel, while Dutch gas prices spiked 19%, landing near 38 euros per megawatt-hour. UniCredit sees oil finding resistance close to $80 unless the conflict starts hitting key infrastructure. Eyes are turning to the European Central Bank’s updated forecasts, set for March 19 and based on data available through this Wednesday. 3
JPMorgan bumped up TotalEnergies to “overweight” from “neutral” and hiked its price target to 75 euros, up from 63. The bank pointed to the company’s exposure to oil and a 12-year proven reserve life as key drivers. In broker lingo, “overweight” signals JPMorgan thinks the stock will do better than its sector or benchmark. The firm also highlighted TotalEnergies’ strong balance sheet, saying it’s set up to funnel higher oil prices back to shareholders. 4
TotalEnergies ranks among Europe’s largest integrated energy names, with operations from crude and natural gas to LNG. Its push into power and renewables is gaining ground. Traders tend to reach for the stock when crude spikes, seeing it as a lever on upstream cash generation.
Trading gets abrupt, even chaotic. After an initial jump, shares pulled back, with investors weighing if the newest disruption in shipping and supply chains is just a fleeting jolt or something that will drag on longer.
But that setup swings both directions. If the conflict looks contained, or tanker flows snap back to normal, the oil risk premium could fade—and energy stocks may get pulled lower.
Right now, traders are watching for the usual cues—Hormuz headlines, moves in oil and European gas, and whatever the ECB puts out on March 19 about inflation risks, given the way energy prices keep lurching around. As for TotalEnergies, the next real marker comes on April 29 with its earnings report.
